Game three of this best-of-five semi-playoff looks like a starter-then-bullpen game. Neither right-hander is built to go deep, so the real contest starts around the fifth inning and is decided by who has the fresher, deeper arms and who defends cleanly. The home side is fighting to stay alive, and that pressure pushes it to burn its best relievers early.
KIA leads the series two games to none after winning at home twice, including a five-run first inning in game two that knocked the LG starter out after one out. Kim Do-yeong has been the steady source of power at the top of the order, and KIA's hitters have been making hard contact all series. LG matched them in hits in both games, but its middle of the order has been stranded: Dean, Moon Jeong-bin and Moon Bo-gyeong are a combined 3-for-22, and two errors in game one plus a dropped fly and a missed grounder in the sixth of game two handed over extra runs.
The key starter matchup is Carlos Carrasco against Keisho Shirakawa. Shirakawa has been hit hard by LG this year, with four of his nine homers allowed and Austin Dean going 3-for-4 against him with two of them. That is a real threat in a small sample. But KIA has set this game up as a short-leash start with Hwang Dong-ha, Kim Tae-hyung and Lee Eui-ri ready as long men, and it held back Yang Hyeon-jong and Nail for the next games. That plan limits how much a third look at LG's power bats can hurt. Carrasco was solid in the wild card, but he gave up four runs in 4.1 innings to this same KIA lineup at Jamsil earlier this month.
The bullpens lean KIA's way. Sung Young-tak, Jo Sang-woo and Jeon Sang-hyun are lined up for the late innings, and apart from Jeon, who has pitched in both games and says his body feels good, they are rested. LG's relievers covered about eight and two-thirds innings in game two after the starter left, so they are the more used group. With Shin Min-jae's hamstring keeping him out of the first two games and no word of a return, the home lineup is also a bit thinner than usual.
History points the same way: KIA won nine of the last ten meetings between these teams, including three straight at Jamsil in early October. The likely flow is a close first few innings, one early swing from either side, then KIA's bridge men and closers protecting the game while LG's cold middle order and shaky glove work let a run or two slip. That's why I'm siding with KIA to win this game and move on.
