Two games where I think the goals dry up. Las Palmas are short of forwards and Valladolid rarely get into shootouts away from home. In Ireland against Israel, one side has barely scored in this group and the other keeps lots of clean sheets. Both reads come down to attacks that struggle to produce, and that is what I am backing.
Las Palmas are without Sandro Ramírez, Ale García and Viti Rozada up front, and Iñaki González is suspended. Clemente and Marvin are also injured at the back. Valladolid score only 0.8 a game, all four of their away games this season finished with two goals or fewer, and eight of their last ten stayed low. Las Palmas have had some higher-scoring home games, so it is not one-way, but the missing forwards and Valladolid's style point to a quiet game.
Ireland and Israel meet for the second time in eight days, now on a neutral pitch in Serbia. Ireland won the first one 3-0, but the numbers behind it were modest: nine shots, a lot of the game without the ball, and Israel creating very little. Israel have scored once in three group games and were shut out 0-0 by Kosovo in their last outing. Ireland have kept five clean sheets in their last ten and concede 0.8 a game.
The market is pricing Ireland's absences at the back (Collins and Coleman unavailable, Abankwah suspended) and Israel's habit of conceding. I take that on board. But Israel's own attack has given almost nothing against competitive opposition, and their goalkeeper Daniel Peretz being out injured changes little about how they score. If Ireland lead early like last week, Israel are shut out. If it stays tight, a blank at one end is just as likely.
I put the two together because each one stands on its own matchup read, not just because the prices fit.
