Austria come to Pristina as the clear favourite, but this is a different game from the one in Vienna eight days ago. The pitch is in bad shape, Austria's midfield and attack are thin, and Kosovo are far more dangerous in their own stadium than their last result suggests. I'm backing the home side to be the one that handles the conditions better.
Ralf Rangnick himself said he had rarely seen such an unkempt pitch, "at best a meadow", and admitted it won't be easy for either team to play technical football. That hurts a team built on pressing and quick short passing more than it hurts a side that sits in a compact back five and plays on the break. Kosovo's own home game with Ireland is a clue: 25 shots, 16 of them off target, which Rangnick put down to the surface.
Austria are also not the full side that won 3-1. Alaba, Sabitzer and Arnautovic are not there, Baumgartner and Konrad Laimer were out in the first game, and Wanner and Veratschnig went back to their clubs after knocks against Kosovo. They come off a game in Dublin where they fell two goals behind and had to be rescued by substitutes. Over their last 20, Austria have won only three of nine away games, while Kosovo have won eight of eleven at home and conceded just seven goals.
The 3-1 in Vienna also needs reading with care. Austria's first goal was a free-kick header, the second a quick break right before half-time, and the third came after Kosovo's keeper could not hold a low cross. Kosovo had the first real chance, a close-range shot over the bar, and a header early in the second half that Austria's keeper kept out with his foot. Against Ireland at home Kosovo had 22 shots to 3 and an expected goals figure of 2.74 to 0.25. Kosovo will probably be without or short of Vedat Muriqi, but their route to a result is a tight block, wide transitions and set pieces, and that does not depend on him alone.
That is why I'm siding with the hosts in a game where the surface and Austria's depleted squad take away the things Austria do best.
