Two matches here turn on the same thing: what a team does in the minutes when its thinnest unit is on the field. In Gwangju, Game 3 of a tied playoff series is a bullpen game from about the fifth inning, and Samsung's bridge to its closer is short of arms and short of lefties. In Ulsan, the new KBL import rule gives KCC two imports together in the second and third quarters, while Mobis has only one healthy import left. Both games will be decided in the middle, not at the start.
KIA vs Samsung. Neither starter goes deep. Shirakawa made 2 quality starts in 18 regular-season games, and Choi Won-tae made 8 in 24. Choi has had a hard time against exactly KIA's current core: an 8.10 ERA in 13.1 innings, with Park Jae-hyun 5 for 8 and home runs from Kim Do-young and Castro. Those starts were all in Daegu, so I treat that as a rate rather than a lock. Shirakawa's issue against Samsung is walks (11 in 14.2 innings), but Samsung hit only .196 against him, and his last start was clean: five innings, nine strikeouts, no walks.
The real story is innings six to eight. Samsung lost closer Kim Jae-yoon to a shoulder problem and is missing two lefty relievers, so Won Tae-in, its best starter, moved to the ninth. The bridge before him is thin. Lee Bum-ho already attacked it in Game 2 with a right-handed pinch-hitter whose double scored a run, and he says he will dig further into it. Samsung's way out is to use Won for several innings, but that costs them their Game 4 starter. KIA's own pen is rested after the off day, and KIA bats last. That's why I'm siding with KIA to win.
Mobis vs KCC. Mobis lost Gage Prim to a knee injury with a six-week diagnosis, and no temporary import had been signed as of the preview. That leaves Darius Bezley alone for six import-quarters. Even with Prim, Mobis was the league's worst team in the second and third quarters. In its only full game without him, Samsung's center and forward import pair beat Mobis by 20, while Mobis's domestic bigs managed 2 points and 2 rebounds in 41 combined minutes.
KCC brings the same shape: Long and King together in the middle quarters, with Heo Hoon running pick-and-roll and leading the league in assists. Heo Woong is back and playing big minutes. Mobis has real counters: five days of rest, a fresh Bezley in the first and fourth quarters, and a KCC side on its fifth straight road game with a turnover habit. But rest helps one player and doesn't fill the second import slot. I expect KCC to build its margin in those 20 minutes, so I'm backing KCC to win with room to spare.
