Corinthians arrive at Beira-Rio on six straight league defeats, but the numbers behind that run tell a kinder story than the table. They have kept creating chances and simply not finished them, while Internacional rarely have the ball and have struggled to create much at home. Add a backup goalkeeper for Inter and Corinthians getting key players back after the break, and I think this matchup leans toward the side the market still prices off its results.
Look at the defeats one by one. Against Chapecoense, Corinthians put up 2.12 xG to 0.95 and still lost 1-2. Against Fluminense they matched them at 2.44 to 2.38 and lost 1-3. At Coritiba it was 0.68 to 0.41, another 1-2 defeat. The only game where they were clearly second best was at Flamengo. That's a finishing problem more than a team being outplayed.
Inter have won just once in their last ten. They average under 42% of the ball, and in their recent league games at Beira-Rio their xG has topped out at 1.39. Their home results lately read 0-0, 1-1, 2-3 and 0-0: tight, low-chance games. Fernando Diniz's Corinthians want the ball, and they should get plenty of it here.
The squad news matters too. Rochet is out for Inter, so a backup starts in goal, and they are also missing two midfielders. Corinthians, after a 17-day break, get Hugo Souza, Matheuzinho and Breno Bidon back from national-team duty, and Yuri Alberto is reported recovered from his hamstring problem.
Eduardo Baptista takes charge of Inter for the first time after replacing Paulo Pezzolano. A new coach brings energy, but two weeks of training rarely turns a low-possession team into one that controls games. What I'm looking for is Corinthians holding the ball and Inter finding few clear chances.
