Internacional vs Corinthians

Yuri Alberto’s return gives Corinthians an attacking connection they have been missing. With him occupying the box, Memphis can drop towards Rodrigo Garro and Breno Bidon while Kaio César stretches the defence. That combination is the point my judgement turns on against Internacional’s reshaped back line.

The attacking changes on both sides are what draw me to this match. Inter are preparing to put a centre-forward between their advancing wing-backs, while Yuri Alberto’s return gives Corinthians a runner ahead of Memphis Depay. I expect those roles to make the space around Inter’s back three and Corinthians’ box defence central to the contest.

Corinthians have a clearer route into the box than their recent results suggest. Yuri Alberto gives Rodrigo Garro a central target again, with Memphis Depay and Kaio César offering runs on either side. Internacional are starting a new setup under Eduardo Baptista, with wing-backs pushed into the attack. The meeting of those roles is the point of this call.

Two sides who struggle to separate themselves from each other. Internacional sit 18th and Corinthians 14th, both create and concede around one expected goal a game, and neither has found a way to win lately. I am backing the match to finish level at the Beira-Rio, because the scoring picture is thin on both ends.

Corinthians arrive on five straight league defeats, but the chances tell a different story than the results. In several of those losses they created as much as or more than the other side and simply didn't finish. Now Yuri Alberto is back after two months out, while Inter go into the match with a new coach, a backup keeper and no first-choice centre-forward. I think this is a spot where Corinthians' form looks worse than their football.

Corinthians arrive at Beira-Rio on six straight league defeats, but the numbers behind that run tell a kinder story than the table. They have kept creating chances and simply not finished them, while Internacional rarely have the ball and have struggled to create much at home. Add a backup goalkeeper for Inter and Corinthians getting key players back after the break, and I think this matchup leans toward the side the market still prices off its results.

Internacional's managerial change and severe absences at the back make them highly vulnerable against a revitalized visiting attack. The return of Corinthians' primary striker and key defensive anchor completely shifts the balance of quality in this matchup. While the visitors have struggled on the road recently, this influx of top-end talent gives them a decisive edge over an unsettled opponent.

Internacional against Corinthians looks like two bad form strings meeting (LWLLD and LLLLL in the table data), but the match records say the two sides are losing in opposite ways. Corinthians have out-shot every visitor they hosted this stretch and still lost all three. Internacional won their one recent away game from just 4 shots. After roughly 17 days without a league game for both, I'd watch which of those habits survives the break.