Two games this round turn on the ball more than on the scoreboard names. Indiana has lost its last two true ball handlers and now meets one of the most active defences at forcing turnovers so far, so the possession count shapes that game. In the Los Angeles derby, a Lakers defence leaking points meets a Clippers side that keeps giving the ball away. That is a recipe for many possessions, not a slow grind.
Indiana against Philadelphia first. Haliburton picked up a new hamstring strain after playing 35 minutes in Milwaukee, so this is fresh and not yet in Indiana's numbers. McConnell is also out, and Nembhard is questionable with a neck problem after missing the Milwaukee game. Indiana's ball security was already shaky with Haliburton, at 13 to 19 turnovers a game. Philadelphia has forced at least 15 in every real game while committing only 11 to 17 itself.
The second matchup is Embiid at the rim against Huff and Nance with Zubac out. Embiid drew 14 free throws against Milwaukee and 9 against Cleveland, and Indiana has already allowed 37 attempts twice. That foul-line gap does not depend on Philadelphia's three-point shooting, which has been poor at around 30%.
Indiana's way to stay close is a big shooting night from Siakam, Toppin and Nesmith, but most of that volume was created by Haliburton's passing. Expect Indiana to start brightly at home and Philadelphia's slow first quarters to keep it level early. The gap should open in the second and third quarters, when Indiana's bench has no real point guard against Philadelphia's ball pressure. That's why I'm siding with Philadelphia to win by a clear margin on the road.
In the Clippers against the Lakers, the Lakers have scored 125 or more in all four regular-season games. Doncic and Reaves are carrying the creation, and Kessler is finishing at the rim. Their defence has gone the other way, conceding 117, 123 and then 136 to Portland with 29 fouls. The Clippers have turned it over 26 times in each of their last two games. That hands the Lakers live-ball runs instead of slowing the game, while Garland, the bench and the three-point volume keep the Clippers' own scoring going.
Hachimura is a new absence for the Clippers and Sanders steps into the starting five. Their other long-term absences were already missing from recent games. The first meeting finished 125-117, with both sides trading big quarters. Even with the Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back, tired legs cut both ways: a slower offence, but also a softer defence. That's why I expect points from both teams and I'm on the high-scoring side of this derby.
