I think this game stays closer than the market expects. Hiroshima comes in hot, but Ibaraki's recent losses were narrow ones against opponents the market clearly preferred, and the form numbers for both sides point to a tight game at Ibaraki's home arena.
Hiroshima has won five of its last six and scores about 86 a game. The shooting behind that is the part I do not trust: 55% from the field and 46% from three, over only four box scores. Ibaraki's numbers are the mirror image, 42% from the field and 34% from three over three box scores. Samples that small tend to drift back toward the middle.
Ibaraki has lost four straight, but look at how. It lost by one at Gunma when Gunma was the heavy favourite, then by nine, and it dropped two home games to NeoPhoenix by six and eight. Over its last ten games it scored 77.9 and gave up 77.5, so it is not getting run off the floor.
Hiroshima has beaten Ibaraki in nine of their last ten meetings, and I do not ignore that. But those games span several seasons and rosters. In the most recent one, Ibaraki won 87-72 on Hiroshima's floor. Hiroshima also faced Saga, Kobe and a friendly opponent during its run, so I give the streak less weight than the record suggests.
