Three matches, one theme: sides that create a lot of chances against back lines that are missing key pieces. In each game the chance numbers over the last ten or so matches point clearly one way, and the absences make the weaker defence even thinner.
Cincinnati against Philadelphia: Philadelphia average about 18 shots and 2.5 expected goals a game, while Cincinnati concede over two goals a game and are without two starting defenders, Malatini and Robinson. Cincinnati are no pushovers going forward, with 1.6 expected goals of their own, so this should be a game with chances at both ends. Philadelphia's last two games were flat, but they sit at the low end of a nine-game sample. That is why I expect goals here.
Heerenveen against Nijmegen: both sides create plenty, Heerenveen around 1.6 expected goals and Nijmegen around 1.4 while conceding about 2.0. Nijmegen's many draws came in open games, not stalemates, and they are missing two defenders and two forwards. Heerenveen come off a cup tie, but nothing suggests a cautious approach. I expect an open game with goals.
AC Milan against Inter: Inter out-shoot opponents by a wide margin, roughly 21 shots to 11 for Milan, with a clear expected-goals edge. Milan are missing both first-choice centre-backs, Gabbia and Tomori, and have conceded big chance quality recently. Inter's own defensive absences have been played through for weeks. Derby history leans Milan, but those meetings had different squads and a different coach. That's why I'm siding with Inter, with the draw returning the stake.
Overall I'm backing goals in the first two games and Inter's chance edge in the third.
