Two matches, both decided by how the teams' styles meet. At the Olimpico, a Lazio side that gives away very little in open play hosts a Cagliari back line that has been leaking goals, especially from crosses. At the Coliseum, Getafe's long-ball low block takes away the regains that Sevilla's attack depends on. One should be a controlled home win, the other a low-event grind.
Lazio under Gattuso attack down the flanks: Isaksen on the right, Zaccagni and Nuno Tavares on the left, with Noslin dropping off and Taylor and Frattesi arriving late. Their defence has kept opponents to very little in open play across the last three games with the same back-line core. Rovella, Marusic and Gudmundsson were missing throughout that run, so the numbers already account for them.
Cagliari have conceded ten in three, from midfield turnovers and crosses defended badly. Roma scored twice from crosses and Monza scored four. Their draw route needs them to sit very deep, as they did only at Juventus, and Lazio to waste their volume. Lazio's home wins against sitting sides have been narrow, so this is about the win, not a big margin.
Getafe under Bordalas defend in a five-man line and go long to Unal and Satriano, with about a third of the ball at home. Sevilla are not a possession side either. Their best chances come from winning the ball against teams that build short, and Getafe do not. Every Getafe home league game this season had two goals or fewer, including a 1-1 with Rayo when Getafe were down to ten men for over an hour.
Mojica's suspension takes away Getafe's main left-sided crosser, and Mario Martin is also banned, so their already thin attack loses two pieces while Djene returns to the back line. Sevilla will be pushed into carrying the ball against a set block, a role they rarely take on.
That's why I'm backing Lazio to win at home and expecting very few goals between Getafe and Sevilla.
