The Clippers' losing streak says less about this match than it looks. All five defeats came against the league's upper tier, and on the two opponents both sides have faced with their current line-ups, the margins were almost identical. Toronto without Kawhi Leonard is a different team from the one in the season preview. This shapes up as a game decided by one stretch of ball security, not by a gap in class.
The Clippers have been without Beal, Ingram, Strus, Miller and Niederhauser all season, so every result they have posted already reflects this roster. Both teams lost at Minnesota (by 26 and by 23) and both lost at the Lakers (by 8 and by 6). That puts them within two or three points of each other on a neutral floor. Toronto is 1-3 since Kawhi went out, and the only win came against Orlando.
The key matchup is Toronto's hands against the Clippers' handling. The Raptors force a lot of live-ball turnovers, and the Clippers turned it over 24 to 26 times against the Lakers and Oklahoma City. Their most recent game at Golden State was their cleanest, at 14, and Tyronn Lue has made ball security the focus. The Clippers' answer is steady three-point volume from several shooters, against a Toronto perimeter that just gave up 18 threes in back-to-back games. Toronto also fouls a lot, which sends the Clippers to the line.
Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Jakob Poeltl missed Toronto's last game with a shoulder problem and is questionable, which matters on the glass. For the Clippers, Derrick Jones Jr. played the night before and is projected to start.
Expect the Clippers to stay close through the first half on threes and free throws. The third quarter is where Toronto would try to break it open with a run off turnovers. If the Clippers keep the giveaways in the mid-teens, this becomes a one- or two-possession fourth quarter with Garland creating late. That's why I'm siding with the Clippers at home.
