Two J2 matches where the league table hides how the teams actually play. Albirex's high place is mostly a home record, and they now have to carry the ball away from home, which they are not built to do. Tochigi City's possession style gives Miyazaki exactly the space their direct game wants. In both, the venue and the style matchup count for more than the table.
Kofu vs Albirex Niigata: Albirex took 21 of their 26 points at home, where they sit in a compact screen and break. Away they are 1W 2D 3L, scoring 7 and conceding 16, and when forced to keep the ball they turned 17 to 21 shots into a single goal. Kofu are bottom, but most of the damage came away, and their last two games were 1-1 draws from a deep block that allowed five shots on target each time. Matheus Moraes, Albirex's main finisher and free-kick taker, went off injured in their last game. Rain is forecast, which suits error and set-piece goals more than patient build-up. Expect Albirex with the ball, Kofu defending and breaking through Naito, and a low-event game. That's why I'm siding with Kofu not to lose at home.
Miyazaki vs Tochigi City: Miyazaki are unbeaten in nine league games and play direct, with Ano's through-balls for Okumura. Against bottom-half defences they scored two or three every time. Tochigi hold the ball and push up, but they allow more than 17 shots a game and have conceded at least twice in seven of their last eight. They scored first in four recent games and lost all four. Tochigi also travel from Kanto to Kyushu on two days' rest, while Miyazaki stay home. Expect Tochigi to have the ball early and Miyazaki to win the second half on the break. That's why I'm with Miyazaki to win.
