A top-of-the-table clash in Toyama where both defences were broken in the same round, and a Miyazaki side whose way of winning the ball fits exactly how Tochigi City lose games. In the first, neither back line is intact while both attacks are. In the second, the visitors keep the ball but not control, and they fade after the break. The common thread is that this week's facts point the same way as the season-long patterns.
Toyama against leaders Sendai: Sendai create a lot, around eighteen shots a game, and push runners forward early, which is how they were countered twice in their two recent defeats. Toyama have one of the best organised attacks in the league and a bench wave of Tsuboi, Kunitake and Ogawa that keeps scoring after the hour.
The key change is at the back. Toyama lost Okamoto, an every-week starter in the middle of the back three, to injury in the last match, so Sendai's long balls and early crosses to Umeki go at a patched unit. Sendai lost Moraes after seven minutes of that same round, with a midfielder dropping to left back and more defenders reported out. Sendai's keeper has let in half of the shots on target he faced across his last three games. Sendai cannot afford a third straight defeat, and Toyama go top with a win, so neither side settles. That's why I expect Toyama and Sendai to both find the net.
In Miyazaki, the hosts' unbeaten run rests on chances, not luck: at home against comparable sides they have nearly doubled their opponents' shots and shots on target. Tochigi City have more of the ball, but they concede plenty of shots, have let in two or more in nine of their last ten, and failed to hold each of their last three leads in the second half.
Yamauchi and the Miyazaki midfield win the ball and break behind Tochigi City's advanced full-backs, with Okumura and Murakoshi finishing against a keeper who has conceded seven from twenty on target in three games. Tochigi City will probably score through Nishiya's creativity, but they travel the length of the country on two days' rest. The second half should belong to the home side. That's why I'm siding with Miyazaki to win.
