Two matches where the weakness that usually decides things is missing from the matchup. In Cleveland, Oklahoma City has lost the defensive pressure that used to expose the Cavaliers' worst habit. In Yokohama, Akita's away record looks bad, but their losses are all tight. Both cases come down to how big the gap really is, not who is better.
Cleveland vs Oklahoma City: the Thunder's 4-0 start came from a defence that forced 22 to 26 turnovers a game, with Holmgren and Caruso in the rotation. Without them, plus Jalen Williams and Wallace, Oklahoma City forced only 10 and 11 turnovers in its two road losses, by 24 at Dallas and 21 at Houston. Cleveland's losses usually come from turnover spikes under pressure, and that pressure is not there now. Instead, Mobley and Allen face a single real centre in Hartenstein. Cleveland's heavy three-point volume runs into a perimeter that has allowed 41 to 50 attempts a game, while the Thunder's shooters outside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have gone cold. The expected flow is a Cleveland lead built through threes and second chances, with Gilgeous-Alexander keeping it within reach through isolations. That's why I'm with Cleveland to win with some room.
Yokohama vs Akita: Yokohama will have the ball and Akita will sit in a 4-4-2 block. Akita have no away win, but they conceded one goal in five of their six away league games and two in the other, and every away loss was by a single goal. Yokohama's games against compact blocks have been one-goal affairs, like 1-0 against Tokushima on 20 shots and a 1-2 home loss to Oita. Their big wins came against teams that played open. The likely shapes are 1-0, 1-1 or 2-1. A wider Yokohama win needs an early goal or a late bench strike against a block that has not given away a second goal after conceding. That's why I'm siding with Akita to keep this close.
