Two ACL Two games where the chance picture is clearer than the table suggests. In both, one side controls the ball and the shot count while the other either leaks goals or is stretched by squad problems. Finishing is the open question in each, but the volume gap is measured, not assumed.
Gangwon against Kuching City: over its recent games with stats, Gangwon has averaged about 61 percent of the ball, 13 shots to 5.5, 6.2 on target to 3.2 and 6 corners to under 2. Kuching has conceded in most of its recent games, including 2-3, 1-2 and 1-2 scorelines, and its goals against have tended to arrive late. Gangwon's weak link is conversion, with many draws lately and a home loss to Phnom Penh, and Kuching's way back is a set piece, penalty or counter. Still, the territorial pressure against a leaky back line should produce at least the one goal needed. That's why I'm siding with Gangwon at home.
Shanghai Shenhua against Machida: Machida is the possession side, with more shots and clearly more on target (about 6.3 to 3.6) and a better expected-goals balance, while its defence has kept seven clean sheets in ten. Shenhua scores plenty but concedes in nine of ten, and its centre-back Zhu Chenjie is out with a fractured jaw. The coach has also said he cannot name a lineup because of injuries and fatigue and will rotate. Shenhua's goals come in bursts, so a full-strength night is possible, and Machida drew 0-0 at Kobe despite 19 shots. Even so, volume against a depleted, rotated back line is the better side of this match. That's why I'm backing Machida to win away.
