Two matches here where the structure caps the margin more than the names suggest. In Rio, a level semi-final tie that goes to penalties gives the visitors every reason to keep it tight, and these clubs have never been separated by more than a goal. In Oklahoma City, two settled starting units have produced last-possession games every time they met there last season. In both, the favourite needs a specific run of events to pull clear.
Flamengo against Estudiantes is the second leg of a Copa Libertadores semi-final, level after a goalless first leg. Flamengo control the ball at home and concede very little, but without Arrascaeta their chance creation against organised blocks swings hard: almost nothing in La Plata, a narrow win over Fluminense, a draw with Independiente del Valle. Estudiantes were aggressive in the first leg, but away in this competition they sit compact, as they did in their win at Corinthians.
The key matchup is Flamengo's runners, Lino and Plata, against a back line that gets Rojo and Tomas Palacios back. Rojo was cleared to play and Palacios returns from suspension, so the block is stronger than in the first leg. Jorginho's return should help Flamengo's circulation in midfield, but Estudiantes' crossing and their knack for winning penalties give them a route to a goal of their own.
I expect a cautious first half and a long Flamengo spell of possession. Estudiantes only have to come out once they fall behind, and even then Flamengo have tended to slow down after taking a lead. All five meetings between these clubs were decided by one goal or fewer, two of them at the Maracana. That's why I'm siding with Estudiantes to keep this close.
Thunder against Nuggets is Oklahoma City's home opener against a direct title rival. The Thunder's big opening win came from their length smothering Wembanyama's rim game, plus McCain's hot shooting. Jokic does not live at the rim. He scores from the elbow, the post and the arc, and passes over help, so that length is a weaker weapon here.
Gilgeous-Alexander will get his numbers against Braun and Murray, and Jokic will get his against Holmgren and Hartenstein. Without Dort, Oklahoma City have lost their most physical defender in this rivalry. Their real edge is the bench, against a new Denver second unit with Strawther out. But in a game like this Jokic and Murray should play big minutes, which limits that exposure.
Last season's three meetings in Oklahoma City ended within six points. With both starting fives healthy, I expect another starters' game decided late. That's why I'm siding with Denver to stay within range.
