Croatia and England have spent the last week playing the same two opponents in opposite order, and the tidy reading ("England beat Czechia 2-0, Croatia only 2-1, so...") is thinner than it looks. England's 2-0 in Czechia came with the hosts down to ten from the 25th minute, while Croatia's 1-4 against Spain was a game where they managed five shots in total. Before Rijeka (01:00 KST, Oct 4) the more interesting question is which side of the pitch Croatia's attack actually runs through, and who England will have standing there.
Look at the DB match stats. England vs Spain at Wembley ended 2-3 with England on 1.74 xG against Spain's 3.12, so it was open both ways. Then in Czechia, Pavel Šulc was sent off in the 25th minute and England piled up 22 shots for 1.48 xG against 0.32. That tells me about game state more than about England's ceiling. Croatia's 2-1 win at Czechia was eleven against eleven, 0-0 at the break, and they finished on 1.84 xG to 0.92. Then Spain beat them 4-1 (0.47 xG for Croatia, 5 shots, 2 on target), with Yamal scoring in the 2nd minute.
The thread I'd follow is Perišić. He set up Croatia's winner in Czechia (Marco Pašalić, 77') and the goal Beljo scored against Spain (28'), and he scored Croatia's goal against Portugal in July. A lot of what Croatia creates is routed through him. England's defence has changed since the Spain game: Nico O'Reilly left camp injured and no replacement was called up (beIN, Oct 1), so Lewis Hall is the expected left-back, with Trent Alexander-Arnold likely at right-back (Sports Mole predicted XI, same day). That is a prediction from a preview, not a confirmed lineup, so check the teamsheet before reading much into it.
Two more things worth keeping in mind. Both teams have had the same three-and-a-bit days since their last games. And the one previous meeting in our data, the World Cup group game on June 18, finished England 4-2, but that was a different tournament context and nobody is playing the same game twice. For me the tell will be the first 20 minutes: does Croatia get more than a handful of shots away, or does England's rotated midfield (Pickford and Bellingham are expected to come back in) let the game get stretched like it did against Spain?
