Two games, two different stories. In Rijeka, a Croatia back line with key defenders missing meets an England side that scores and also concedes. In Cleveland, a White Sox bullpen game runs into a rested home team with its best arm on the mound.
Croatia vs England (01:00 KST, Oct 4). Croatia have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, and coach Bilic said his defence played badly in the 1-4 loss to Spain. Martin Erlic is out and Josip Juranovic is reported out too. Croatia still score almost every time: they were blanked in only one of their last ten. England have been in open games lately (6-4 against France, 2-3 against Spain, 2-1 against Congo) and are missing Nico O'Reilly at left-back, with Pickford returning in goal. I read this as a game where both goals count and a 2-1 type result is the normal shape. England's 2-0 in Prague came against a ten-man Czech side, so I don't treat it as the template.
Cleveland vs Chicago White Sox (02:00 KST, Oct 4, ALDS Game 1). Chicago will start lefty Hagen Smith as an opener, then go through relievers. Their last five starters went about 3.6 innings on average (4.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.2, 5.1), so the bullpen carries most of the night. Smith is a sensible answer to Kwan and DeLauter early, but it only covers the first inning or two. After that Cleveland see a string of different arms at home.
Cleveland start Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA), who is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA against Chicago this year and has won his last two starts against them. The Guardians' bullpen has not thrown an inning in the last three days. Chicago's bats are hot and they swept Houston, so this is no gift, but I like the side with the established starter and the fresh bullpen behind him.
