Two cup nights where the shape of the game matters more than the names. In Columbus, the Open Cup final pits a home side that wins by central volume against a St. Louis midfield missing both of its usual screens. In São Paulo, the second leg forces Fluminense to carry the ball into a Palmeiras block that already held them to almost nothing in the first leg. In both matches, one team's way of attacking runs straight into the place the other team is weakest.
Columbus under interim coach Courtois win at home through the middle: Habroune as a free eight (scoring in three straight), Méndez and Rodríguez between the lines, Zaroury and Martínez finishing. Their last two home games produced 33 and 14 shots. St. Louis come in without Durkin and Wallem, so the pivot is Miguel Perez and Mykhi Joyner. The only measured sample of that pairing, at Minnesota, gave up 27 shots and three second-half goals through the centre.
St. Louis also lose Navarro, cup-tied, who had been behind their early goals. Their transition attack with Becher, Holse and Matan still has teeth (they won the semi 3-0 at Colorado without him), and Columbus are without Camacho at the back, but they have conceded once in two games since. I expect Columbus to own the ball from about the twentieth minute and the St. Louis midfield to tire after the hour. A final can freeze level late, which is why I want the draw covered. That's why I'm siding with Columbus.
In Brazil, Palmeiras have their back three intact again: Gómez and Giay served their ban in the league and are available. That group held Fluminense to a tiny expected-goals total in the first leg, and Flu without a fit striker have stayed under one expected goal from open play in three straight games. Flu need goals, so they will have the ball and push their full-backs up, which leaves room behind Guga and on the left for Arias, López and Piquerez to run into.
Both Palmeiras goals in the first leg came from that transition lane and from the bench late on, and at Athletico they scored twice in the first ten minutes. If Palmeiras score first, Flu need three and Sosa, Anderson and Mauricio come on into open space. Palmeiras have scored in every home game of their last ten, while Flu have leaked two a game away. That's why I'm backing Palmeiras to win it in normal time.
