Chicago and Washington are both 1-1, both beat Milwaukee and both lost to Toronto, but they win in opposite ways, and one of those ways has been running far below its own level. In Daegu, two good starters meet in a playoff opener, and the late innings changed this week for only one side. In both games the question is not who looks stronger on paper but which mechanism holds up over the whole game.
Bulls vs Wizards. Chicago lives on volume: 45 and 36 three-point attempts in its two games, heavy free-throw drawing and the offensive glass. Its threes have gone in at about 20 percent, well below what the same shooters made in preseason on similar volume, and it still won at Milwaukee. Washington wins inside and at the line through Anthony Davis and Trae Young, but it barely shoots threes and gave up 19 offensive rebounds to Toronto.
The turnover battle looks level. Chicago's worst night came against Toronto's heavy pressure, and Washington doesn't force turnovers at that rate. Without Claxton, Chicago's interior can be attacked at the line, and that is Washington's best route. Washington's other weapons are weak, though, so it struggles to keep pace if Chicago's shooting comes back toward normal.
Washington also played the later game the night before and flew overnight, while Chicago's deeper bench (59-35 bench points at Milwaukee) gets stronger as the game goes on. That's why I'm siding with Chicago.
Samsung vs KIA, Game 1. KIA arrives hot after sweeping LG, and Naile has handled Samsung all season, with a 3.24 ERA in 25 innings against them and a seven-inning start just over a week ago. Paddack has been good overall, but KIA is his worst opponent, and he hasn't made a real start in sixteen days.
The structural change is in Samsung's bullpen. Closer Kim Jae-yoon and lefty relievers Lee Seung-hyun and Baek Jung-hyun are all off the roster, which means reshuffled roles against KIA's left-handed middle order. KIA's pen is rested and unchanged. Koo Ja-wook's return helps Samsung's lineup, but likely only as a designated hitter, and the offence stalled badly late in the season.
I expect a close game settled in the late innings, which is exactly where Samsung is newly thin. That's why I'm backing KIA to win.
