Both of these matches turn on the same question: what happens when a side has to carry the ball against an opponent that is happy without it. At The Valley, Norwich's creation has collapsed while Charlton's home block barely concedes, so the game should stay level for a long time. At the London Stadium, Southampton like the ball and West Ham are at their best defending and breaking. In both games the table and the names say less than the roles do.
Charlton vs Norwich. Norwich have lost the chance battle in each of their last five matches and blanked in the last two, with very few shots on target. That is a performance problem, not bad luck. Their top scorer has been out all along, so the XI that produced those numbers is the one coming. Charlton, meanwhile, are unbeaten at home with two goals conceded in five, including goalless draws in which QPR and Portsmouth created almost nothing.
The key matchup there is Norwich's build-up through the middle against Charlton's three centre-backs and screening midfield, and that has favoured the home side keeping things tight. Charlton's own route is set pieces and late pressure from the bench. Norwich have not kept a clean sheet since March and their losses have tended to turn just after half-time. A long level game, then a late push, is the expected flow. That's why I'm siding with Charlton not to lose.
West Ham vs Southampton. Southampton keep the ball even away from home, and West Ham's best recent results came without it, including a win at Swansea with under a third of possession. West Ham also carry a set-piece threat that needs no territory: a centre-back has five league goals, and the Southampton coach flagged it himself.
The Southampton side is also thinner than it looks. Their finishing has dried up, with three goals from far better chances over four games and only five goals in five away matches. Their top scorer and their holding midfielder are both doubtful, and the right-back is out. If Southampton push up as usual, Bowen and the runners from midfield get the space behind.
I expect West Ham to win the transition battle, with a draw as the main alternative rather than an away win. That's why I'm siding with West Ham at home.
