Two home favourites whose margins depend on something that is only partly there in these games. Charlotte without White, Knueppel and Ball live almost entirely on three-point volume, which makes their scoring swing hard from night to night. Oklahoma City's winning margins came from their defence, and two of the defenders who drive it are ruled out along with their second scorer. In both games the visitor's route to staying close does not need a hot night.
Charlotte vs Washington. The same Charlotte group scored 81 with 25 turnovers against Atlanta. Against Miami they needed 16 threes and 34 from Brandon Miller to win, and still lost that fourth quarter 19-35 after leading by 21. Schroder, Miller and Allen carry the ball-handling, and there is no steady way to score inside the arc.
Washington score differently. Trae Young and Anthony Davis get to the line, with 28 to 41 free-throw attempts a game, and the rest of their points come from twos. Charlotte's edge is the glass with Naz Reid, who is probable after an illness. Late in games, free throws hold up when threes stop falling. That's why I'm siding with Washington, taking the points.
Oklahoma City vs Phoenix. Even at full strength the Thunder scored only 96 to 116 points. They won by 12, 12 and 7 because they forced 22 and 26 turnovers and blocked 9 or 10 shots. The official report rules out Cason Wallace at the point of attack, Chet Holmgren at the rim and Jalen Williams as the second creator. Without them, SGA, Mitchell and Caruso are carrying a lot more.
Phoenix have their own holes: no Mark Williams or Ighodaro behind the starters, so Hartenstein should feast on the offensive glass. And a road collapse at Portland shows how low their floor is. But Devin Booker attacking a paint without Holmgren, plus Phoenix's 37 to 40 threes a game, gives them steady ways to stay in range. The market moved only a little for three missing starters. That's why I'm siding with Phoenix, taking the points.
