[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Fiorentina vs Como 1907: Match Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 18, 2026, 13:00 UTC
Fiorentina and Como 1907 meet at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence on October 18 for Serie A Round 7. Fiorentina, sitting 19th, are looking for their first home league win of the season. Eighth-placed Como 1907 return to the road after a midweek trip to Rotterdam, with only around three and a half days between matches.
1. Match overview and team form
The teams are seven points apart, but the table includes Fiorentina’s matches from before their managerial change. Under Fabio Grosso, they lost all three opening league games and conceded nine goals. Since Paolo Vanoli returned in September, they have recorded one win, one draw and one defeat in three league matches, conceding five. Two of Fiorentina’s three home results this season, one draw and two defeats, came under Grosso. Their only home league match under Vanoli was a 1-1 draw with Napoli.
Como 1907 climbed into the top half with three straight league wins, but followed that run with a defeat away to Frosinone and a draw against Roma, then lost 3-2 away to Feyenoord in the Champions League on October 15. Against Frosinone, Como had 27 shots and 2.12 expected goals, but were denied by the goalkeeper and a clearance off the line. Against Roma, they struggled to play through the middle when faced with man-to-man pressure. Those recent results do not mean they have lost their ability to create chances, but the lineup that produced them will change today.
League standings after six matches: Fiorentina: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 defeats, 4 points Como 1907: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 11 points Goals for and against: Fiorentina 7-14, Como 1907 9-6 Average possession and shots per match: Fiorentina 45.7% and 16.2, Como 1907 62.2% and 22.7 Rest since the previous match: Fiorentina 8 days, Como 1907 around three and a half days
The standings and points are from the data centre as of October 17. The goals, possession and shots are Rabiola’s league totals through Round 6, published on the same date. Fiorentina take fewer touches of the ball but get shots away quickly. Como 1907 keep possession and move the opposition’s defence around. Still, Fiorentina have conceded 14 goals despite allowing only 11.5 shots per match, while Como have scored nine from 22.7 shots per match. Shot volume alone is a poor guide to how many goals we can expect today.
Vanoli said that 10 of Fiorentina’s 14 goals conceded came while the team had its defensive shape in place (Viola News, October 16). Against Napoli, they lost their man at a corner. Against Genoa, they failed to deal with a parried shot and a cross, conceding twice in the first 20 minutes. Fiorentina have conceded less often since Vanoli’s return, but still have no clean sheets in the league. They did respond after falling behind against Napoli, and pushed higher up the pitch after the break against Genoa to create a chance to equalise. The team can react after conceding, but they still have problems at the start of matches and immediately after scoring.
Availability also matters. Atta has reportedly been ruled out with an abdominal problem, while centre-back Ranieri is a doubt with nerve compression in his foot. If Atta is absent, another midfielder will need to carry the ball forward from the middle towards the edge of the box. Ndour and Brescianini are expected to flank Fagioli. If Ranieri cannot play, Pongračić could partner Drăguşin in central defence. Reports say Mastantuono, who has had hand surgery, may be able to play while wearing a protective brace, but his availability will be confirmed by the official lineup.
Como 1907 will be without Ken and Diao. Ken has played 158 minutes this season, while Diao has logged 536 minutes, scoring four goals and providing one assist. Diao used his dribbling to escape pressure against Roma and got in behind Feyenoord to score after receiving a long pass. Without him, Como lose a key way to advance in one-on-one situations down the wing and attack space behind the defence with long balls. Douvikas is expected to lead the line. Nico Paz has played the full 90 minutes in each of the last two matches after a long trip with his national team, so a rest has been discussed, but most local predicted lineups still have him starting.
Como 1907 have won all three of their most recent meetings with Fiorentina at the Franchi. In two of those games, Fiorentina scored first inside 10 minutes before losing. The coaches and squads were different then. That record is more useful as a reminder to watch how Fiorentina manage the game after taking the lead than as proof that Como will start on top.
2. Matchup analysis
Como 1907 are likely to dominate possession early, with Fiorentina looking to keep the space between midfield and defence tight. Reports suggest Vanoli is preparing a 4-3-3 to stop Nico Paz from receiving freely between the lines. If the shape becomes closer to a 4-5-1 when defending, Como will need to find room to feed Nico Paz and Baturina in central areas. Against Roma, Como’s central players struggled under man-to-man pressure, so they went wide to the full-backs or tried long passes to Douvikas. They managed five first-half shots and 0.32 expected goals.
We should not assume Fiorentina will press in the same way as Roma. Vanoli has also criticised his own team for being too passive in defence. If Fagioli and the midfielders on either side hold their positions without closing down the player on the ball, Como can keep the passes moving and create new pockets for Nico Paz to receive in. If Nico Paz starts on the bench, Baturina and Caqueret are likely to take on more of that role in the first half. Even then, Fiorentina’s midfield will have to adjust its spacing if Nico Paz comes on after the break.
Como can still threaten Fiorentina’s goal even if they do not create the shots they want through the middle. They have averaged 22.7 shots per league match and scored twice from set pieces. Fiorentina failed to mark their opponents properly at a corner against Napoli, and against Genoa an opponent got to De Gea’s parried shot first. If Como shoot from the edge of the box and the ball spills loose in front of goal, or win a corner, Fiorentina need to get to the ball first. Vanoli’s assessment that his side have conceded even when set defensively will be tested directly in those situations.
Fiorentina’s attacks may target Como’s left side immediately after winning the ball back. Como left-back Valle moves inside into midfield when his team attacks. Against Frosinone, Valle and Baturina were slow to get back after a Como corner, and the opposition advanced to the far side of the goal to score. If Fagioli can receive the ball facing forward in midfield and find Mastantuono, he could attack the space Valle leaves on Como’s left. Fiorentina showed at Venezia that they can attack quickly after winning the ball, scoring four times with just 37% possession.
That route has its conditions. All three of Mastantuono’s league goals this season came against Venezia, and Fiorentina have scored little from open play outside that match. Their attack will depend on whether he can carry the ball as usual with a hand brace and whether Como’s Da Cunha and Perrone can block the first forward pass. If Mastantuono moves inside and right-back Jimenez pushes forward, Fiorentina will also leave space behind on their right. If Como send Baturina into that space, Fiorentina’s centre-backs will have to account for the wide run as well as Douvikas.
On the other flank, Como’s Cùtu and Jesús Rodriguez could take on Fiorentina’s left-back. Napoli targeted the left side, where Viery tends to tuck inside, with Politano and Di Lorenzo. If Viery starts there again, Como can use Cùtu’s forward runs and the winger’s positioning to put in crosses. Como have no headed goals among their nine league goals, but in February’s meeting a Jesús Rodriguez cross led to an own goal. Fiorentina will need to deal with Douvikas’s shots and the loose balls that follow their attempts to clear crosses.
The starting lineups and substitutions could shift the balance of both attacks after the break. Vanoli made half-time changes in each of his last two league matches. Fabregas brought on three players at once at half-time against Frosinone and again in the 60th minute against Feyenoord. Como also have a Champions League home match against Manchester United in three days, so managing minutes is a factor. The rest differential will not affect every Como player equally, though: Douvikas, Da Cunha and Cùtu all came on in the 60th minute against Feyenoord.
If Nico Paz comes on after the break, Como could create more shots and final passes around the box. Fiorentina could also bring on Beto if Como push their full-backs and more attackers forward in search of a goal, giving them another runner in behind. The impact of each coach’s changes will depend on whether the team in front pushes for another goal or keeps possession to limit the opponent’s attacks.
3. Final prediction
Even if Como 1907 have the edge in possession and shots, we expect a draw. Fiorentina need to watch for Como’s set pieces and loose balls after shots, while Como must defend against attacks into the space behind Valle after losing possession. Whoever scores first will still have to contend with an opponent capable of finding an equaliser.
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 2-2 Como 1907. If Como take the lead from a set piece or a rebound, we expect Fiorentina to respond with a half-time adjustment and forward runs down the right. Even if Fiorentina go in front later, Como still have Nico Paz’s shooting around the box and their second-half substitutes to draw level again. Diao’s absence takes away one of Como’s options for extending a lead with a counterattack. Fiorentina have continued to concede under Vanoli and need to manage the game better immediately after scoring. The home side’s 8 days of rest, compared with Como’s return to the road after around three and a half days, could also affect Como’s defensive recovery in the second half.
The market has leaned towards a Como win, pointing to the league table, season-long shooting numbers, Fiorentina’s high number of goals conceded and Como’s three straight wins at the Franchi. It is reasonable to expect Como to create more chances, but Fiorentina’s points total reflects three consecutive defeats under their previous manager. Como’s ability to protect a lead without Diao is also hard to judge from their season record alone. Our draw prediction would be in trouble if Fiorentina concede twice in the opening 20 minutes from a set piece and a loose ball, then Como control the tempo with possession.
