[2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie] SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: Match Preview Kick-off: 18 October, 12:30 UTC
SC Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar meet at the Kooi Stadium in Leeuwarden for round nine of the Dutch Eredivisie. AZ Alkmaar can cut the gap to leaders Feyenoord to one point with a win. For SC Cambuur, unbeaten in four games after changing its defensive approach following four straight defeats, this is a test of whether its new pressing system can work against a team near the top.
1. Match overview and team form
AZ Alkmaar are second with 19 points from eight league games, having won six, drawn one and lost one. SC Cambuur are 13th with eight points from two wins, two draws and four defeats. The gap in the table is wide, but recent form tells a different story from the season as a whole. SC Cambuur lost its first four matches, scoring four and conceding 16, then took two wins and two draws from the next four, scoring seven and conceding three. AZ Alkmaar opened with five straight wins, then drew with Willem II, beat Telstar 1-0 and lost 2-0 away to Feyenoord.
League after eight games: SC Cambuur 13th, 8 points; AZ Alkmaar 2nd, 19 points Season goals: SC Cambuur 11 scored, 19 conceded; AZ Alkmaar 18 scored, 8 conceded Recent schedule: SC Cambuur played away in the league on 11 October; AZ Alkmaar hosted a Europa League game on 16 October
SC Cambuur's improvement is about more than the number of goals conceded. Head coach Henk de Jong pushed the defensive line higher and intensified the press from round five. Opta figures reported by ESPN.nl show that the team's PPDA, or the number of opposition passes allowed per defensive action, fell from 14.8 to 9.6. Open-play recoveries within 40 metres of the opposition goal rose from 3.8 to eight per game. Expected goals against over the same stretch also dropped from 2.3 to 1.6 per match. Actual goals conceded were even lower, at 0.75 per game. Goalkeeper Thijs Jansen's saves helped secure the results against ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle. It also matters that all four opponents faced since the change were 11th or lower in the league.
AZ Alkmaar's recent scoring dip has had different causes. Against Willem II, they had 22 shots but scored only once. Against Telstar, they converted just one of eight shots on target. They created chances against teams sitting deep, but finished too few of them. The Feyenoord match was different. AZ had 57% possession but only two shots on target, and their midfield struggled to receive passes from the centre-backs under pressure. AZ also lost 1-0 away to Sunderland. SC Cambuur's press matters today because it targets the same kind of build-up that has recently troubled AZ's opponents.
Since switching to a 4-2-3-1, de Jong's side have looked to win the ball high and attack quickly rather than keep possession for long spells. Centre-back Billy van Duijl is a key starting point for attacks with his forward passing and crossing, while Rafik El Arguioui and Ilai Amash are involved in the finishing. Echteld's AZ Alkmaar keep the ball and bring their full-backs into the attack. Their five-goal haul against Go Ahead Eagles early in the season also featured forward runs from full-back Mateo Chávez and centre-back Lewis Schouten. AZ press high as well, but lately, turnovers in attack and defensive errors have led to goals against.
The starting line-ups are not confirmed. SC Cambuur captain Jamal Amofa will miss the rest of the season with an Achilles injury, though he was already out of the starting XI after the defensive change. His absence therefore mainly reduces the team's defensive cover. Forward Nicolas Binder has returned from a minor injury, and whether he starts remains a question. If he leads the line, El Arguioui can operate behind him. If Binder begins on the bench, de Jong will have the option to change the attack later in the game.
AZ Alkmaar will be without midfielder Kees Smit and forward Ziz Hornkamp. Valdemar Andreasen is expected to take Smit's place in the starting XI. He has three assists in 218 minutes of competitive action this season and played the forward pass that led to the winner against Telstar. He has yet to show much evidence of holding onto the ball and advancing play under intense pressure, though. Hornkamp has scored twice in 87 minutes as an impact substitute. His absence limits AZ's options for bringing on a natural finisher up front in the second half.
AZ Alkmaar travel away three days after Thursday's Europa League game against Hapoel Be'er Sheva. SC Cambuur have had seven days to rest since facing PEC Zwolle on 11 October. AZ rotated its starting line-up in Europe, and the two full-backs expected to play today, along with some of the forwards, were rested on Thursday. The schedule therefore does not affect every likely starter equally. Rain and strong gusts are forecast around kick-off. The conditions could affect the accuracy of long passes and crosses, but it is hard to say which team will be more affected.
AZ Alkmaar have not lost to SC Cambuur since 2012. Their last top-flight meeting, though, was in the 2022-23 season, and both the managers and SC Cambuur's style of play have since changed. How today's pressing and build-up play match up is more relevant to the game than the older head-to-head record.
2. Match-up analysis
The early battle will centre on how AZ Alkmaar centre-backs Wouter Goes and Schouten find midfielders Peer Koopmeiners and Dave Kwakman. SC Cambuur can disrupt that link with Nicky Souren and Ethan Akkakkou, with El Arguioui positioned ahead of them. If Cambuur win the ball high, they can send Amash and El Arguioui forward without having to build from deep. Four of AZ's five goals conceded in their last five matches involved a turnover or a defensive mistake. That is where Cambuur's preferred route to goal meets the way AZ have recently conceded.
Still, we cannot assume Cambuur will press as effectively as Feyenoord did. Cambuur's pressing numbers came against four teams near the bottom of the table, and ADO Den Haag created chances worth 2.10 expected goals. Jansen also had to save Cambuur in the first half against PEC Zwolle. If AZ's midfield can play through the first press, Andreasen could find a forward pass and Mexx Meerdink could run in behind the defence. If AZ use that route early, Cambuur may have to adjust their pressing position or continue to leave space behind the back line.
When possession changes hands, van Duijl will also come under pressure. He is SC Cambuur's centre-back and their leading source of forward passes. If AZ block his first pass, Cambuur may have to find another route or go long. There may be spells when they struggle to get the ball into the opposition half, as when they failed to record a shot until the 35th minute of the first half against PEC Zwolle. On the other hand, if van Duijl can play through the press and switch the ball wide, Amash and Fabian Kwam can attack the space behind AZ's advancing full-backs.
When Binder enters the game could change when SC Cambuur are at their most dangerous. If he starts, El Arguioui can make runs into the penalty area from the second line, with a striker in place to meet Amash's crosses from the outset. If Binder begins on the bench, de Jong could change the attacking shape at half-time, as he did against PEC Zwolle. Binder came on in that game and scored the winner in the 83rd minute. With Hornkamp out, AZ have fewer options to bring on a forward who can finish chances. Meerdink and Ro-Zangelo Daal are expected to start, and other key players who were rested or began on the bench on Thursday should return to the line-up.
The teams' different weaknesses could come into play after the first goal. SC Cambuur took the lead against Telstar and ADO Den Haag since the change, but conceded equalisers from a penalty and a scramble following a corner. If Cambuur score first, AZ can push Chávez and Dijkstra forward and send the ball into the penalty area. How Cambuur cope with crosses and set pieces after dropping their press will matter.
The game may not be settled quickly if AZ take the lead. Against Willem II, they conceded an equaliser just after losing the ball in midfield in the 81st minute. Koopmeiners and Kwakman are expected to start again after Thursday's match, so they will have to deal with Cambuur's press in the second half too. If Cambuur win the ball or bring on Binder to add another attacking option, they will have a route back into the game. If AZ can keep playing through the first press after taking the lead, Meerdink will find more space to run into as Cambuur push forward. Cambuur have yet to play from behind since changing their defensive approach, so we cannot be sure how they will respond.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect AZ Alkmaar to have more possession and to be slightly more likely to score first. But if SC Cambuur win the ball high, AZ's possession will not automatically turn into chances. If Cambuur take the lead, AZ can look for an equaliser by pushing down the flanks and competing for balls in the penalty area. Even if AZ score first, Cambuur can try to respond with their second-half press and attacking substitutes.
Cambuur's recent high press targets the areas where AZ have lost possession before conceding. Both teams have let leads slip, so the first goal may not be enough to decide the result. AZ will have midfielders playing again after just three days who must cope with Cambuur's pressure, and Hornkamp, a forward who could have offered a second-half goal threat, is unavailable. Taken together, we expect a game in which one side takes the lead and the other comes back.
The market heavily favours AZ Alkmaar, based on the gap in the table and Cambuur's heavy home defeats. But all three of Cambuur's home losses, and 16 of their 19 goals conceded this season, came before they introduced the high press. When assessing their current defence, we should account for that change and the fact that all four opponents since then were near the bottom of the table.
Our score prediction is SC Cambuur 1-1 AZ Alkmaar. We expect either AZ to take the lead before Cambuur equalise in the second half, or Cambuur to score first through the press before AZ respond. If AZ's defenders and midfielders play through the early pressure and score first, though, they could add a second while Cambuur push forward in a situation they have not yet faced this season.
