[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Osasuna vs Racing Santander preview and analysis Kick-off: October 18, 12:00 UTC
Osasuna and Racing Santander, level on 8 points, meet at El Sadar in Pamplona on October 18. The La Liga Round 9 fixture pits two sides just 2 points above the relegation zone. Osasuna will play their first match since Jagoba Arrasate returned as manager, while promoted Racing Santander are looking for their first away point of the season.
1. Match overview and team form
Both teams have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 8 matches. Racing Santander sit 15th and Osasuna 16th, with both on a goal difference of -10. Their scoring records tell different stories. Osasuna have scored 8 and conceded 18, struggling at both ends. Racing Santander have scored 13 but have conceded a league-high 23. They come into this match level on points, with different problems to solve.
La Liga this season After 8 matches: Osasuna 8 goals scored, 18 conceded / Racing Santander 13 goals scored, 23 conceded At today's venue split: Osasuna at home, 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss, 2 goals scored and 3 conceded / Racing Santander away, 4 losses, 4 goals scored and 16 conceded Top scorer for each team: Ante Budimir, 6 goals for Osasuna / Yassir Zabiri, 7 goals for Racing Santander
Osasuna have taken 1 point from their last 5 matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 17. Against Espanyol at home, they failed to track runs down the flanks and conceded twice in the opening 17 minutes, with poor communication between defender and goalkeeper contributing to the goals. Rayo Vallecano's equaliser came after Osasuna lost the ball while trying to build from the back near their own penalty area. Away to Betis in their latest match, Unai Santos was caught on the ball by the opposition press before they conceded, then Osasuna failed to clear inside the box during their second-half fightback and conceded again. After the 2-5 defeat, manager Luis Miguel Ramis left and Arrasate returned.
Arrasate says 60 to 70 percent of the squad know his methods, though he added that they need time to adjust because the training approach is different. He has held four training sessions since returning. He has put restoring the players' confidence ahead of tactical changes. Recent goals against Osasuna show that decision-making under pressure, especially when on the ball, will matter. We will only know from the match how much Arrasate's first game improves that problem.
Racing Santander are unbeaten in 4 home matches but have lost all 4 away games. Of the 16 goals they have conceded on the road, 12 came against Barcelona and Celta Vigo, and they made 8 changes to the starting lineup for the Barcelona match. Those 4 away defeats do not necessarily reflect how today's likely starters have performed. They lost 0-1 to Getafe late on after missing a penalty, and let a 2-1 lead slip to lose 2-3 against Rayo Vallecano. Against Celta Vigo, they had plenty of possession but created few clear chances in a 0-5 defeat. The details varied from match to match, but their inability to keep goals out away from home remains a concern.
Both teams rely heavily on their leading centre-forward for goals. Budimir has scored 6 of Osasuna's 8 goals. As in the second half against Rayo Vallecano, Osasuna struggled to create chances when they could not find him with forward passes. Zabiri has scored 7 of Racing Santander's 13 goals, though the routes that supply him are more varied. Iñigo Vicente and Iván Martín provide passes, while Sergio Canales' free kicks and shots from midfield have also led to goals. Still, 6 of Zabiri's 7 goals have come at home. Whether Racing Santander can turn the Vicente-Zabiri link-up into goals away from home is a key question.
Osasuna have left centre-back Jorge Herrando, attacking midfielder Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo out of the squad. None has played much this season, so their absences alone cannot explain the recent run of 5 matches without a win. Even so, with Herrando unavailable, it matters who partners Alejandro Catena at centre-back. Osasuna will also need another way to connect midfield with the front line in Oroz's absence. Raúl García was substituted against Betis with a thigh issue, but he has since trained with the attackers and is in the squad. Whether he starts and how many minutes he plays are separate questions. Kike Barja and Raúl Moro have also returned to the squad and could offer options off the bench on the wings.
Racing Santander have called up most of their first-choice players, including Zabiri and Vicente. Manager José Alberto López says they will keep pressing high away from home. Both teams last played on October 12, and there is also time before their next league fixtures, so the schedule gives them little reason to rest key players. Rain is not forecast in Pamplona around kick-off, but winds are expected to average about 19 km/h. The wind could affect Osasuna's long balls and crosses, particularly when judging where the ball will drop.
The most recent meeting was a July friendly that Osasuna won 2-0. Both goals came after Racing Santander made all 11 of their substitutions at half-time, and Ramis was still Osasuna's manager at the time. That result tells us little about how the teams match up today. One relevant detail was how Racing Santander's first-choice players struggled to play out from the back when Osasuna pressed early.
2. Matchup analysis
Racing Santander's press is likely to test Osasuna's defence early. If Zabiri leads the press and Vicente and Iván Martín push forward, Osasuna's newly paired centre-backs and goalkeeper will need to make quick decisions whenever they receive the ball. If Osasuna try to play forward only with short passes, they could repeat the mistakes seen against Rayo Vallecano and Betis. A turnover under pressure would give Racing Santander a chance to attack before Osasuna can get their defence organised.
Arrasate's response is likely to be more direct. In attacking drills this week, Budimir and Raúl García played centrally, while the wide players looked to create crossing and shooting chances after quick transitions. Sending long balls towards the two forwards would reduce the need for Osasuna to pass under pressure in their own half. If they win the second ball and move it wide, they can target the space behind Racing Santander's full-backs when those players have pushed forward. A long ball alone will not complete the attack. Osasuna need to win the duel around Budimir, then have a midfielder or wide player collect the loose ball to set up a cross.
When a cross comes in, Osasuna's two forwards could each take on one of Racing Santander's centre-backs, Pablo Ramón and Jeanuël Belocian. Racing Santander conceded a late winner at Getafe after a move down the flank ended with a cross to the far post, and they also allowed a free header in the Elche match. Against Rayo Vallecano, Budimir finished a loose ball after Barja's cross was not fully cleared. If Osasuna can win the ball out wide, they can create the kind of chance Racing Santander have already conceded.
On the other hand, if Arrasate opts for a back five to protect the flanks or leaves Raúl García out of the starting lineup, Osasuna will have fewer forwards in the box. It will be difficult to shore up the defence while also keeping two aerial targets up front. If Racing Santander keep possession for long spells, Osasuna will also get fewer chances to cross. Osasuna's attacking threat will depend on the starting formation and how they try to play forward early in the match.
When Racing Santander play through Osasuna's press, Vicente will be key. He can receive the ball on the left against Osasuna's right-sided defence and play in behind for Zabiri to run onto. Zabiri's equaliser against Valencia came from a pass by Vicente. If Arrasate has his forwards lead the press and the defensive line push up behind them, space could open for Vicente to pass into and for Zabiri to run into. If Osasuna's right-sided midfielder drops back to help contain Vicente, that player will also need to get forward quickly to deliver crosses when Osasuna win the ball back.
Both teams have struggled to manage leads. Against Alavés, Budimir brought Osasuna back to within a goal twice, but they conceded again within 5 minutes each time. Racing Santander let a 3-0 lead against Elche shrink after conceding 2 second-half goals, and they were pegged back after going ahead against Valencia. If Racing Santander score first, they may struggle to protect the lead if they sit deep and keep allowing Osasuna to cross. If Osasuna take the lead, Racing Santander are likely to push up their full-backs and midfielders to hit back, so Osasuna will need to stop passes towards Vicente and runs from Zabiri.
Substitutions could change the game in the second half. López has recently made changes to his wide and midfield players around the 60-minute mark, and Racing Santander have conceded after that point in several matches. Osasuna could bring on Barja and Moro out wide, or add a forward who was left out of the starting lineup. If they receive the ball and deliver crosses, Racing Santander's reshuffled defence will have to organise itself for the aerial duels. Racing Santander also have attacking options to bring on, including Asier Villalibre. If Osasuna cannot maintain their pressing intensity, the threat could grow at the other end too.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market gives Osasuna a slight edge because they are at home and Racing Santander have lost all 4 of their away matches. But Osasuna have scored only 2 goals in 4 home games this season, while Racing Santander's heavy away defeat record includes the Barcelona match in which they made 8 changes to their starting lineup. The market expects a high-scoring game based on both teams' goals conceded, while also leaning towards a decisive result. Both sides have repeatedly struggled to stop the other team coming back after taking the lead. We do not think more goals necessarily mean one side will win this match.
Our score prediction is Osasuna 2-2 Racing Santander. Racing Santander are likely to test Osasuna's new centre-back pairing with an early press, while Osasuna should look to play long, win second balls and supply Budimir and Raúl García with crosses. If Racing Santander score first, they will need to keep stopping the wide attacks they have been vulnerable to after taking the lead, including beyond the 60-minute mark. If Osasuna go ahead, they will need to cut off the link between Vicente and Zabiri. Both sides have ways to score, and both have had trouble protecting a lead, so we expect the team in front to be pegged back. Osasuna could still edge it in Arrasate's first match if they play through the early press without mistakes at the back, score first and contain Racing Santander's response.
