Three early-season NBA games, and all three are built on small samples where one visible cause matters more than a record. In each, one side has a leak or a gap that shows up in the numbers, while the other side's recent results lean on shooting that rarely holds.
Atlanta vs Cleveland: both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back and both defences leak. Atlanta has now allowed 120 or more three games running, after two high-scoring wins, and it is missing depth bigs Veesaar and Gueye. Cleveland is 3-1 with efficient shooting from the field, from three and at the line, and only Tomlin is out. Cleveland has the travel to deal with, so this should be a fast game decided in the second half, and I'm siding with Cleveland on the road because Atlanta's defensive slide is the clearer, more current problem.
New Orleans vs Sacramento: the Kings are without Murray, Raynaud and Cardwell up front, and their last games already show it, with heavy early deficits, including 80 conceded in a half at San Antonio. The Pelicans have lost four straight, but three of those were by a handful of points against strong teams. The Pelicans are on a back-to-back and Poole's status is open, yet the Kings' interior hole is named and persistent. I expect New Orleans to build a first-half lead and hold it, so I'm backing the Pelicans to win.
Portland vs Memphis: Memphis is 4-0, but three of those wins were close and came with about 39 percent shooting from three against Utah, Sacramento and Golden State. Portland is 3-0 with the better scoring margin, a home crowd, and an offence that scores in volume. Sharpe has been out for all of Portland's results, so nothing new there. Three-point shooting is the least stable stat, so I'm siding with Portland at home.
