Twente have both a central target connection and a quick route through their wide runners. Excelsior's direct outlet has returned to productive use, but their recent defending has continued to allow free receivers and follow-up chances. Lazio's meeting with Cagliari similarly puts varied supply against a defence struggling to track the next arrival across the box.
Weghorst and Van den Belt have combined centrally, while Taha and Ørjasæter showed their counterattacking connection at AZ. Excelsior's Van Gassel-to-Yegoian pass gives them a direct attacking option, yet their league matches at Fortuna and Heerenveen produced very little sustained shooting. Twente have more ways to bring a second receiver into the attack once the opening pressure is passed.
Weidmann is suspended, and Twente's official preview names Van den Belt as his replacement. Drommel, Pröpper and Nijstad provide continuity behind that change; the longer-standing squad exclusions were already present at AZ. Naujoks has returned for Excelsior and offers a link between the lines after starting their last two matches. Across the game, I expect Twente's wider choice of attacking connections and substitutions to tell, which is why I'm backing Twente to win.
Lazio can move the ball from Zaccagni and Tavares to Isaksen, with Noslin and the midfield arrivals giving Cagliari several players to track. Those connections were visible before the dismissal at Sassuolo. Cagliari's recent concessions against Roma and Bologna exposed cross-marking and loose-ball problems that match this kind of supply.
Belahyane and Floriani preserve roles already used without Rovella and Marusic, while Noslin is expected to lead the attack with Pinamonti still below his best. Cagliari have Winks back in training and Maldini available as an attacking connection, giving them ways to move forward as the match opens. That places greater importance on Lazio's ability to renew an attack after the first chance. Their two wings, supporting arrivals and bench carries give them the stronger route to doing so, and I'm siding with Lazio to win.
