Ajax and Famalicão should each see spells of possession in their respective away matches. Sparta and Rio Ave have more direct routes from a regain into a useful first receiver. In both games, the next pass after a clearance matters as much as the first entry.
Sparta's recent five-defender shape has given Babadi and Toornstra outlets to Zonneveld and Martes, who made real box contacts against Willem II and Go Ahead. Mito is currently out and did not play the latest league game; those replacement suppliers did, while Ajax's Thursday attack already used replacements for its established absences. Ajax can press and recycle chances, but Sparta's played exit route and longer recovery give them a way to stay close. That's why I'm siding with Sparta to keep the match tight.
Rio Ave have connected Liavas and Patrício to Clemmensen, Bezerra and Blesa, including a response after falling behind Nacional. Famalicão had much possession but little clean contact against Alverca, and Gil Dias is now suspended after playing that league match; Mattara is on the medical list after only brief minutes, with Realpe the used replacement. Rio's Aguilera and Miszta are out, though neither was the last league starter in the role central to this argument. Rio can attack the visiting back line after a regain and receive again after the first move, so I'm siding with Rio Ave to avoid defeat.
