Milan can press Udinese and work through Modric into wide deliveries, while Udinese plan a more compact defence and a direct first pass. Barcelona and Madrid should trade pressure and fast releases through their strongest receivers. Both matches will be shaped by whether the first chance becomes a second clean contact.
Udinese's Davis can take the direct first ball and find Ekkelenkamp or Chakvetadze behind Milan's advancing fullbacks. Runjaic has a full week to prepare that lower shape. Milan's Rabiot and Moreira are currently out after playing against Bournemouth, while Gila played the previous Atalanta match; Udinese's Solet played the full Lecce match but is now doubtful, and Zaniolo is only a bench option by the coach's account. Milan retain Pulisic and Modric, yet the altered press and Udinese's planned exits point to a closer game. That's why I'm siding with Udinese to keep the margin tight.
Barcelona can find Yamal through Pedri and return to the far-side runner, as they did while replying twice to PSG. Madrid have a real Diomande, Bellingham and Mbappé release against a high line, but Vinícius is suspended for this league match after playing Leipzig, and Rodrygo remains out. Barcelona's Olmo left the PSG match injured and is out, with Fermín having played as a working replacement. Madrid's Courtois also played the full Leipzig and Sevilla matches before a newly confirmed illness removed him from this squad. Barcelona's repeat shots and current replacement link give them the extra contact to break a level game, so I'm siding with Barcelona to win.
