[2026 U.S. Open Cup] Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City SC Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 22, 00:00 UTC
Columbus Crew and St. Louis City SC meet at Columbus Crew’s home ground, ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, at 00:00 UTC on October 22 to contest the U.S. Open Cup title. Columbus Crew have a chance to win their second title since 2002, while St. Louis City SC are chasing the first trophy in the club’s history. The winner will also qualify for the 2027 CONCACAF Champions Cup.
1. Match overview and team form
St. Louis City SC are higher in the league standings. They sit second in the Western Conference and have secured a playoff place, while Columbus Crew are 11th in the East, one point off the playoff spots. The final, though, is at Columbus Crew’s home ground. Columbus Crew have won five of their last six matches, including the semifinal. St. Louis City SC cannot use Rafael Navarro, who joined in the summer and has scored eight goals and added four assists in eight games, because of an eligibility issue. The standings and the players available for the final both matter here.
League position: Columbus Crew, 11th in the East, 35 points; St. Louis City SC, second in the West, 51 points Last 10 competitive matches: Columbus Crew, 6 wins and 4 losses, 18 goals scored and 12 conceded; St. Louis City SC, 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, 29 goals scored and 14 conceded Previous match: Columbus Crew won 2-0 away to FC Cincinnati; St. Louis City SC lost 3-2 away to Minnesota United Rest before the final: Columbus Crew, 3 days; St. Louis City SC, 4 days
Columbus Crew’s recent run has been tied to changes in their attack over the summer. Sporting director Issa Tall dismissed Henrik Rydstrom in May after the team managed just three wins in 14 league matches, and Laurent Courtois took charge on an interim basis. Diego Rossi, Max Arfsten and Hugo Picard, who scored four goals in this competition, left the club. New arrivals Brais Méndez and Santiago Rodríguez have combined for seven goals and eight assists in around 1,600 minutes. Courtois has given Taha Habroune freedom to move through midfield, and Habroune has scored in three straight matches.
More wins do not mean Columbus Crew have played the same way each time. They pressed high against Charlotte FC and had 33 shots, then dropped into a 4-4-2 three days later away to FC Cincinnati, finishing with three shots in a 2-0 win. The opener against Cincinnati came when Gonzalo Tapia headed in Brais Méndez’s corner. Columbus Crew conceded 23 shots but kept a clean sheet, helped by Patrick Schulte’s saves. Courtois adjusts the pressing height and shape to the opponent, but the recent wins alone do not suggest Columbus Crew will dominate the final.
St. Louis City SC have recovered from a poor start to the season under Yoann Damet. They took just six points from their first 10 games, then went unbeaten in 21 matches across all competitions. Damet generally uses a 3-4-3, building from the back before attacking the space behind the opposition defense. Their passes per game and possession have both risen from last season. Still, they do not need to dominate the ball to win. They beat Colorado Rapids 3-0 in the U.S. Open Cup semifinal with 37% possession.
That unbeaten run ended away to Minnesota United in their previous match. St. Louis City SC went 2-0 up after 10 minutes, then conceded three goals in the second half. Carlo Holse and Alexandru Matan did not play, and several first-choice midfielders and wide players were left out of the starting lineup. The defeat alone is not enough to conclude that the players likely to feature in the final have lost form. The way they conceded after taking the lead, though, resembled their 3-3 draw with FC Dallas, when they let a 3-1 advantage slip.
The roles of the players who may be absent will matter in the final. Navarro is unavailable, while right wing-back Conrad Wallem and central midfielder Chris Durkin are listed as out in the data center. Wallem started all 25 of his league appearances and recorded five assists. In the semifinal, his cross set up Simon Becher’s goal. Durkin received the ball and helped move play forward alongside Daniel Edelman in midfield. Their final availability has not been confirmed, so this analysis considers how the team would be affected if the current injury information holds. Wallem and Durkin both started the semifinal, which St. Louis City SC won without Navarro. Columbus Crew, meanwhile, have already been without Rudy Camacho and Wessam Abou Ali in recent matches and can name a semifinal lineup without either player.
Both teams have a short turnaround, but they managed minutes for key players in their previous matches. Columbus Crew brought Méndez off at half-time against Cincinnati and did not use Josef Martínez or Mohamed Farsi. St. Louis City SC also rested Holse and Matan against Minnesota. The forecast for the night of the final is mostly clear with light winds, so there is no clear reason to think the weather will favor either team’s style of play.
Columbus Crew won both previous meetings between these teams, each by a 2-1 scoreline. The coaches and attacks have changed since then, though, and only Steven Moreira from the scorers in those two games could feature in this final. The current players’ roles matter more to the outlook than those past results.
2. Matchup analysis
Where Columbus Crew choose to start their press could shape the scoring chances at both ends. If they press high as they did against Charlotte FC, St. Louis City SC will have to play through midfield, where Durkin may be absent. A turnover in that phase would give Méndez and Rodríguez a short route to goal, while Habroune could also get into the box. Méndez and Habroune both scored against Charlotte after winning the ball high up the pitch. That is the sort of situation Columbus Crew will look for if St. Louis City SC keep building from the back.
The same press could also leave Columbus Crew exposed. If St. Louis City SC play through it after the forwards have pushed up, Jeong Sang-bin and Becher can run in behind. Columbus Crew are likely to have midfielder-turned-defender Sean Zawadzki and former full-back Moreira in their defense. Jeong scored in the semifinal after the opposing goalkeeper made a mistake while dealing with a back pass, and Becher has also scored after an opponent lost the ball in their own half. If Columbus Crew cannot win the ball high, those two forwards can target the space behind and pressure the build-up from the back.
Courtois could also choose to sit deeper, as Columbus Crew did against Cincinnati. Keeping the distances between players tight would reduce the space for Jeong and Becher to run into. St. Louis City SC would then have more of the ball, while Columbus Crew would look for goals from set pieces and limited counterattacks. St. Louis City SC would have to find a way through a compact defense without Navarro, and if Wallem is also out, they would need to build a new right-sided crossing threat. Their first-choice attack failed to score against Vancouver Whitecaps, so more possession alone would not guarantee a St. Louis City SC goal.
When Columbus Crew have the ball, Habroune’s movement into midfield links with their left-sided attack. Against Cincinnati, he finished after Tapia laid the ball off from a run in behind. He also scored against Orlando City SC after receiving a through ball from Rodríguez. If Durkin is absent, Edelman and whoever comes into the side will have to carry the ball forward from the back while also tracking Habroune’s movement. If St. Louis City SC drop midfielders deeper to strengthen the center, that could also change how they move the ball from the back into attack. Columbus Crew will need to prevent St. Louis City SC from advancing through the space behind Habroune if they lose possession while he is joining the attack.
The right wing-back position is another important one for St. Louis City SC. Wallem handled both forward runs and moves inside, and he set up Becher’s goal from the right in the semifinal. If Miguel Perez or Mykhi Joyner takes his place, a new player will need to carry on the existing attacking connections. Malte Amundsen and Anas Zaroury, or Rodríguez, could find different opportunities to attack down Columbus Crew’s left depending on whether the opposing wing-back pushes forward. That is why a possible absence for Wallem could affect Columbus Crew’s left-sided attack as well as St. Louis City SC’s forward play.
Both sides have scored and conceded from set pieces. Columbus Crew opened the scoring against Cincinnati from Méndez’s corner. St. Louis City SC conceded a corner header against FC Dallas and a direct free-kick goal against Portland Timbers. On the other side, St. Louis City SC scored from a quickly taken free kick in the semifinal, while Columbus Crew conceded a free-kick goal against Orlando City SC. Along with the pressing height, it will be worth watching which team wins set pieces in more dangerous areas.
The timing of goals in recent matches needs to be viewed alongside the lineups and game situations. In their last 10 competitive matches, St. Louis City SC scored 19 first-half goals and 10 in the second half, while Columbus Crew conceded nine in the first half and three after the break. Columbus Crew, in turn, scored 11 second-half goals, and St. Louis City SC conceded nine after half-time. St. Louis City SC’s first-half tally includes five goals against LA Galaxy, and Navarro played in some of those matches. These numbers do not make an early goal in the final a certainty. If St. Louis City SC take the lead first, a bigger question will be how the replacements for Wallem and Durkin handle Columbus Crew’s second-half attack.
Columbus Crew protected their semifinal lead by slowing the game down, and they also sat deeper in the second half against Cincinnati to finish a 2-0 win. St. Louis City SC have attacking options to bring on if they fall behind. Becher and Jeong scored in the semifinal, and Holse can also feature in the final. His starting role and minutes will depend on the team selection. The team that scores first and the changes made in the second half will both matter, so the opening goal alone may not decide this final.
3. Final view and conclusion
We give Columbus Crew the better chance of winning 2-1. St. Louis City SC could score first through an early press or runs in behind from Jeong and Becher. Columbus Crew have conceded often in the first half recently, and choosing to press high would leave space behind their defense. But Courtois changes the pressing height depending on the opponent, and his team have dropped deeper to protect leads. Navarro is unavailable, and if Wallem and Durkin also miss out, St. Louis City SC will need to rebuild their right-sided attack and midfield connections. Even if they take the lead, those combinations will have to deal with Columbus Crew’s second-half attack. We expect Columbus Crew to score from a set piece, a Habroune run or a substitute’s contribution, then manage the pace and protect a one-goal lead as they did in the semifinal.
The market appears to give Columbus Crew a narrow edge, reflecting the home final and Navarro’s absence, while still giving considerable weight to St. Louis City SC’s higher league position and away form. But Wallem and Durkin were part of the side that produced that away form. With their roles in mind, we rate St. Louis City SC’s chances of winning lower than the market does. Our view would change if St. Louis City SC score first through an early press, then Jeong or Becher gets in behind the Columbus Crew defense again to add a second while Columbus are chasing the game.
