[2026–27 Dutch Eredivisie] AFC Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen preview and analysis Kick-off: 4:00 am on 11 October (Korea time)
AFC Ajax and NEC Nijmegen meet at the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam at 4:00 am Korea time on 11 October. It is their first Eredivisie match after a break of almost three weeks. Ajax need points to close the gap on the leaders, while NEC are looking to end a run of five competitive matches without a win. Both sides need the points, but the way they go about getting them should test each other’s defence.
1. Match overview and team form
AFC Ajax sit fifth with 14 points from seven league games, five behind leaders AZ Alkmaar. They beat Fortuna Sittard and Willem II 5-1 in successive matches, but could not build on that momentum when they drew 2-2 at home to Excelsior Rotterdam on 20 September. NEC Nijmegen finished third last season and reached the Champions League qualifiers, but they are 11th this campaign with eight points from seven games. They went winless in five competitive matches in September and have been outscored 14-4 across their last five games.
The teams’ home and away records are hard to explain by home advantage alone. Ajax have one win, two draws and one defeat in four league home games, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Away from home, they have won all three matches, scoring 11 and conceding once. Both of NEC’s league wins came away, but against 18th-placed Willem II and 16th-placed PEC Zwolle. Ajax’s home fixtures have also included PSV Eindhoven, so the venue splits alone do not settle which side has the edge here.
Ajax’s recent attacking output has been spread across several players. Julian Brandt has scored in three league games in a row, while Davy Klaassen, Oscar Gloukh, Viktor Tsygankov and Tolu Arokodare have also contributed goals. Against Fortuna Sittard, Ajax conceded an equaliser in the 52nd minute, then finished 5-1 winners with substitutes involved in the scoring moves. But against Excelsior Rotterdam, they had 81% possession and 22 shots inside the box, yet conceded twice from the opposition’s four shots. Creating chances and stopping the few attacks they face remain separate challenges for Ajax.
NEC have struggled to get enough shots on target even in matches where they have had plenty of the ball. They had 61% possession and just two shots on target from 10 attempts against Feyenoord, then 63% possession and only one shot on target against SC Cambuur. Mistakes in possession at the back have also kept costing them. Almaguer Cabar’s error led to the opening goal against Feyenoord, and a poor pass from goalkeeper Nicholas Polster allowed Go Ahead Eagles to equalise. NEC held a training camp in Spain during the three-week break, but Gabriel Bras and Tobias Storm, both expected to feature in the back three, could not rejoin the full squad until two days before the match because of international duty.
Team AFC Ajax: Key absences and availability questions: Anton Gaaei and Caio Henrique are out. Possible impact: a reshuffle in the full-back positions. AFC Ajax: Key absences and availability questions: Kasper Dolberg and Steven Berghuis are out. Possible impact: fewer options to bring on up front and one fewer corner taker. NEC Nijmegen: Key absences and availability questions: Philippe Sandler and Bram Nuytinck are out. Possible impact: a shortage of experienced defenders for the back three. NEC Nijmegen: Key absences and availability questions: Perr Schuurs’ minutes are uncertain. Possible impact: aerial defending against Arokodare and a target at attacking corners.
Ajax, managed by Michel, look to dominate possession and press high to keep opponents in their own half. Their starting shape has alternated between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. With both first-choice full-backs unavailable, they could move Thilo Kehrer and Youri Baas out wide, or turn to Lucas Rosa and Owen Wijndal. No combination has been confirmed. With Dolberg out long term, Arokodare’s remaining centre-forward cover is Marcus Leonardo, who has played little recently. Simon Adingra is available, though it is unclear how much he will feature in his first competitive appearance.
Dick Schreuder’s NEC play with a back three and press high up the pitch. Charon Chery and Dušan Tadić look to feed Brian Linssen, while Chery’s set pieces are another key route to goal. Schuurs has scored headed goals from corners against PEC Zwolle and Go Ahead Eagles this season. He has played only 88 minutes this campaign, though, so even if he starts as expected, it remains to be seen whether he can handle Arokodare in the air for the full match.
Ajax have failed to beat NEC at home in each of the last three seasons. But Schreuder was not NEC’s coach for their 3-0 win in May 2025, and Ajax were managed by someone else in both meetings last season. The most relevant point today is Schreuder’s pressing approach. When NEC visited this ground in February, they pressed Ajax high and equalised from a corner in a 1-1 draw. The sides’ defensive personnel have changed since then, and Ajax have a new manager.
Both teams have European fixtures on 15 October, after this match. With a long break just behind them, there is little reason to make wholesale changes to the starting line-ups here. Rain and strong gusts are forecast around kick-off. If the roof is left open and the weather arrives as expected, the conditions could affect both short passing and the accuracy of long balls and crosses. They do not appear to favour either side in particular.
2. Match-up analysis
If NEC press high as usual, Ajax’s new full-back pairing will be tested early as they try to play out from the back. Schreuder’s side made it difficult for Ajax to build attacks in the February meeting. Ajax also conceded after just five minutes in their home match against PSV Eindhoven this season, when they faced an intense press. If NEC can cut out passes between the centre-backs and full-backs, they may get chances closer to goal and make up for their recent shortage of shots on target.
Ajax have ways to play through the press. If Arokodare can take and hold a forward pass or a long ball, a teammate can run into the space behind NEC’s midfield as it pushes up to press. Juventus got past NEC’s high press in September with a long ball and a run in behind to score the opener. If Adingra plays, Ajax would also have the option of attacking the space left by NEC’s advancing wing-backs. His minutes are uncertain, though. Strong gusts with the roof open could also make long passes less accurate. NEC’s willingness to press high gives Ajax a threat to deal with, but it also leaves space to attack.
At the other end, NEC’s work on the ball at the back will come under scrutiny. Two of the three goals Ajax scored across their two meetings last season came after NEC lost possession in their own half. NEC have also been hurt by errors from defenders and their goalkeeper this season. If Ajax win the ball high up the pitch, Brandt, Gloukh and Tsygankov could get shots away from close range. Ajax’s pressing success is no certainty, though. Michel has identified pressing and defensive organisation as areas to improve, and Ajax could not win the ball high up the pitch against PSV.
Even if Ajax take the lead, the way both teams respond carries risks. Ajax have continued to send players forward while ahead in search of another goal, but have conceded from limited opposition attacks at home during that process. Excelsior’s second goal came from a cross to the far post after a run down the flank. With Ajax changing both full-backs for this match, the positioning of the defender on the far side and the transition back into defence will be tested again. NEC can attack that space or use one of Chery’s set pieces to get back into the game.
NEC have struggled to keep their defensive shape when trailing. Against Feyenoord, they equalised in the 55th minute, pushed forward again and then conceded in the 61st and 64th minutes. Storm is the only regular in NEC’s expected back three. Bras has played 191 minutes this season and Schuurs 88. Schreuder has said that the defenders who could come on are not fit enough to start. How long this combination can press high and then drop back together will be a key question in the second half.
Set pieces offer NEC a way to make up for their lack of open-play threat. Chery’s deliveries and Schuurs’ headers have already produced goals this season, and NEC’s equaliser on their last visit to Ajax also came from a corner. Ajax conceded from a loose ball after a corner against PSV this season. If Schuurs is unavailable or comes off early, NEC would lose both a target for corners and an aerial defender to handle Arokodare. Ajax are also without their usual corner taker, Berghuis.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We give Ajax the better chance of winning. Our predicted score is 3-1 or 4-1 to Ajax. NEC could score with an early press or from a Chery set piece, but we expect Ajax to find more chances to add goals as the match goes on.
If NEC press high, Ajax can attack the space behind them with forward passes to Arokodare and runs down the flanks. NEC have made repeated mistakes in possession at the back this season, and Ajax turned similar errors into goals in last season’s meetings. In the second half, NEC’s expected back three, with limited minutes between them, and their lack of defensive substitutes could make it harder to sustain the press. If Ajax keep attacking after taking the lead and NEC push forward in search of an equaliser, the gap could widen.
The market strongly favours Ajax, based on their league position and scoring record, as well as NEC’s recent heavy defeats. We agree with the pick, but see a slightly greater risk of Ajax leading by one and then conceding an equaliser from a NEC set piece. Without Dolberg, Ajax have fewer options up front to bring on if the match is level again. NEC’s difficulty sustaining their press in the second half still gives Ajax a route to score again.
This prediction depends on NEC pressing high. If Schreuder adds defenders and keeps his side in their own half, Ajax will have less space behind the defence to attack. In that case, Ajax could create plenty of chances as they did against Excelsior Rotterdam, but take a long time to find a winner or drop points.
