France have beaten Belgium once already this month without ever pulling clear, and the rematch at Stade de France turns on a small thing: can France get the Olise-Cherki pairing on the ball early enough that they are not waiting for minute 88 again? In their three group games France have had 12, 18 and 18 shots and scored once each time. Belgium, meanwhile, were comfortable being out of the ball in the first meeting and then looked like a different team when they had space against Italy.
The first meeting in Belgium finished 0-1. France had 65% of the ball, 18 shots (12 inside the box) and 1.22 xG to Belgium's 0.69, but the goal only came in the 88th minute, Olise from a Cherki pass. Belgium put two shots on target all night. That is a side that defended well for most of a match and lost to one late chance, not a side that was dominated.
Look at who actually produces France's goals. Against Turkey it was Mbappé from an Olise assist (and Mbappé came off with an injury flag soon after), then Olise from Cherki against Belgium, then Olise again from Cherki against Italy in the 55th minute. Mbappé is on the squad's injury list again for this one and so are Saliba, Konaté, Mateta and Zaire-Emery, though the data only says the squad marks them as injured, not that they are out. If the front line changes shape, the Olise-Cherki link seems the more reliable thing to watch than any single name.
Belgium's route is different. At Italy they had 2.39 xG in the first half alone (De Bruyne assisting Godts in the 20th minute), then eased off. Against Turkey they won 3-0 but Turkey had 23 shots and slightly higher xG, 1.33 to 1.24, so that scoreline flatters them a bit. Their best chance in Paris looks like early transition play through De Bruyne and Lukebakio, not trying to match France's passing volume.
One more thing: France's last game against Italy ended with Upamecano sent off in the 85th minute, 1-1 after leading. I could not confirm in the data whether that carries a ban for this match, so check the lineup before assuming anything about the back line. Belgium also have Courtois, Onana and Doku flagged as doubtful in the squad list.
