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Vincent Kompany collapsing at training is the headline before Freiburg v Bayern, but I'm not sure it's what changes this match most. Aaron Danks and the same staff, René Marić included, say they're preparing as normal. The bigger change is in midfield: Kimmich is still away with his family, Pavlović has been rested with a calf problem, and t-online names only Tom Bischof and Konrad Laimer, who Bayern mostly use at full-back, as central options. That's the zone Freiburg would want to go after, and it's also where they looked worst last week.

Two matches where the home side is the shakier one at the back and the visitors are the steadier unit. Neither is a clear mismatch, so the visitors' edge is about solidity, not dominance.

Two matches where both defences leak and both teams have ways to score. Neither side looks able to shut the game down, so the shape is open, with chances at both ends.

Two matches between leaky defences and attacking sides.

Both of these matches pair open, high-event teams with thin back lines, so goals at both ends are the natural shape.

Two matches where the visitors look the more complete side on the pitch, even if neither is a lock. In both, the home team's defensive structure is the thing under pressure, and the draw is a real outcome that has to be respected.

Hibernian's loss to Falkirk is a useful warning against reading possession as control: they reached the box often, yet spent much of the match chasing a two-goal deficit. Celtic's big league win over Hearts points the other way, but Celta then limited their attacking volume. In this matchup I want to see whether Hibs can turn repeat entries into chances without leaving Celtic an easy route back through midfield. That exchange feels more revealing than either last scoreline.

Celtic are top of the league with only five goals conceded, yet they come to Easter Road with a defence our absence list says is stretched, and with two losses in a row to Rangers behind them. Hibs are bottom, have scored only nine league goals, and have a new manager looking for a first result. So I'd frame this as a question: does a rotated Celtic back line give a blunt Hibs attack anything real to work with, or is the problem simply that Hibs struggle to create at all?

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Hoffenheim's improvement comes from coordinated pressure and quick combinations after the ball is won. Leverkusen bring a functioning central partnership that can turn a successful escape into an immediate box attack. The key contest is the first pass beyond pressure and the defensive recovery that follows it.

Palace and Newcastle have working wide supply that meets recent weaknesses in cross pressure and tracking. Both have allowed opponents to continue attacks after an initial defensive action. Atalanta against Frosinone adds a contest between pressing the first pass and finding receivers beyond that pressure.

Monaco's quick forward receptions meet a Lille side that has recently allowed deliveries and runners into decisive areas. Lille retain their own passing and wide combinations through the striker absences. In Manchester, Bournemouth's first pressure directly engages United's recent difficulty protecting the next central reception.

Hull's deep defending depends on the first forward pass sticking so nearby runners can join it. Brentford have several recently demonstrated ways to keep attacks moving through central and wide receivers. At Anfield, Brighton's expected league unit brings central combinations into a contest with Liverpool's aggressive pressure and forward running.

NEC's advancing players create several receiving positions while leaving space behind their pressure. Groningen retain connections capable of taking the ball into that space. Genoa against Venezia turns on a different question: whether home possession can move a compact midfield without losing cover against a direct outlet.

Inter's alternative wide combinations have already produced completed attacks and goals. Fiorentina's midfield and crossing give them a route back through the space behind the wingbacks. At San Mamés, the central contest is Athletic's repeated wide access against Getafe's reorganised marking and clearances.