Two matches between leaky defences and attacking sides.
Freiburg against Bayern: Bayern's output is huge, about 3.6 goals a game, yet their defence concedes in most matches. This time they are without their usual keeper, a key centre-back and several midfielders, so control is thinner. Freiburg score freely at home and are coming off a European trip. Expect Bayern to lead early and the game to stay open after the break. That's why I'm backing plenty of goals.
Sunderland against Leeds: the standings gap hides near-identical chance numbers, with both sides creating and conceding at similar rates. Both lose centre-backs, so each defence is the weaker half. The match should be open with transitions both ways. That's why I'm siding with both teams finding the net.
