[2026-27 Eredivisie] AZ Alkmaar vs Twente preview and analysis Kick-off: October 25, 19:00 UTC
AZ Alkmaar and Twente meet at the AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar in Round 10 of the Eredivisie at 19:00 UTC on October 25. There are three points between the teams. They are both returning from European away games and meet just three days later, so control of the match in the middle stages and the workload in the second half could both shape the result.
1. Match overview and team form
AZ Alkmaar are second with 20 points from nine league games, having won six, drawn two and lost one. They are three points behind leaders Feyenoord. Twente are fifth on 17 points, with five wins, two draws and two defeats. A win would draw them level with AZ Alkmaar. Neither team has won either of its last two league matches. AZ Alkmaar lost 2-0 to Feyenoord and drew 2-2 with Cambuur. Twente drew 1-1 with Fortuna Sittard before losing 2-1 to Utrecht.
Team AZ Alkmaar: 2nd in the league, 20 points from 9 games, 6 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat / goals for and against: 20-10 Twente: 5th in the league, 17 points from 9 games, 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats / goals for and against: 17-10
AZ Alkmaar’s recent winless run in the league has come from a mix of defensive errors and a lack of spark in attack. Against Feyenoord, they failed to clear their lines and conceded the opener, then conceded again from a corner. Against Cambuur, they managed just seven shots across the match despite the visitors going down to 10 men in the second half. In between, they also gave the ball away in their own half against Hapoel Be’er Sheva and conceded an equaliser. Twente’s high press will test AZ Alkmaar’s first pass and clearances again.
Twente’s two-match winless run in the league has exposed different problems. Fortuna Sittard sat deep, and Twente kept the ball for long spells but could not thread passes through the compact defensive lines. Against Utrecht, they scored first but lost their duels as the visitors pushed forward in the second half, conceding twice. Their strong season performances, creating plenty of chances while allowing few, have not translated into recent results. In the competitive matches covered by the data centre’s expected-goals model, Twente posted 21.62 xG and 6.46 xGA across nine games. AZ Alkmaar recorded 14.02 xG and 10.48 xGA in a separate sample of eight competitive matches. The samples cover different opponents and different numbers of games, so the figures are not directly comparable, but they support the view that Twente have been creating chances consistently.
The venue split favours AZ Alkmaar. They have won three and drawn one of their four home league games, while Twente have managed one win, two draws and one defeat in four away matches, conceding in each. AZ Alkmaar’s home opponents, though, have been ADO Den Haag, Go Ahead Eagles, Willem II and Telstar. Whether they can keep Twente, who are comfortable in possession, quiet is a separate question. Twente’s away goals conceded also cannot be explained by the number of chances they have allowed alone. In some matches, a cross or one accurate shot has punished them despite giving up little.
Team AZ Alkmaar: unavailable or doubtful: Kees Smit and Goes are out; Jordy Clasie and Wouter Goes are doubtful / potential impact: the midfield’s forward passing and the starting centre-back pairing could change. Twente: unavailable or doubtful: Lars Unnerstall, Max Bruns and Filip Thorvaldsen are out / potential impact: the goalkeeper will change, and there are fewer centre-back options on the bench.
For AZ Alkmaar, Smit’s absence and Clasie’s availability have a direct bearing on the midfield setup. If Clasie cannot play, Peer Koopmeiners and Kees Kwakman could fill the two roles. If Goes is also unavailable, Hout is likely to start at centre-back after losing the ball under pressure against Hapoel Be’er Sheva. Twente are expected to start Joel Drommel, who has been in goal recently, in place of Unnerstall. The absences of Bruns and Lemkin affect the depth behind the current starting centre-back pairing more than the first-choice partnership itself.
Both teams played on Thursday, but their line-ups differed. AZ Alkmaar beat Ararat-Armenia 4-0, making seven changes from their previous league starting XI. Twente won 4-1 against Lincoln Red Imps, with nine of today’s expected starters in the XI. AZ Alkmaar had four. Both were big wins against different levels of opposition with different line-ups, so the scorelines alone tell us little about their attacking threat in this match.
Recent meetings in Alkmaar offer a clue to how this game could unfold. With the same two managers in charge, AZ Alkmaar scored inside the first 15 minutes in both last season’s cup quarter-final and league meeting. Twente then took control, but AZ Alkmaar won the cup tie 2-1 after extra time, while in the league they scored an added-time equaliser to make it 2-2. Troy Parrott, who scored the cup winner, has left, and Clasie, who opened the scoring in the league game, is doubtful. Twente’s Kristian Hlynsson, who contributed to their goals, and Gustaf Lagerbielke, who supplied the long ball, are both expected to feature. The key is how many players remain who can recreate the same scoring patterns, rather than the old results themselves.
2. Matchup analysis
AZ Alkmaar are likely to press early to disrupt Twente’s build-up, then attack the second balls after crosses. Their early goals in the two meetings in Alkmaar last season also came from duels after crosses. Ruben van Bommel on the left and striker Mexx Meerdink will be central to that approach again. Against Fortuna Sittard, Twente conceded after a cross from an opponent who had faced little pressure, followed by a header between Robin Pröpper and Bart van Rooij. AZ Alkmaar have reason to target the same area, but they cannot reproduce Parrott’s role in knocking down the cross. Meerdink will need to compete with the centre-backs, while Stengs and the other midfielders react to the loose ball.
The duel on that flank can also run the other way. If Twente right-back Bart van Rooij pushes up to cross, Ruben van Bommel will have to track back. That changes the position from which AZ Alkmaar can launch an attack when they win the ball. If van Bommel pins Twente’s defence back first, van Rooij will have fewer chances to get forward. That is why we should watch where van Bommel receives the ball as well as how often AZ Alkmaar cross.
Once Twente play through AZ Alkmaar’s early press, they can use Wout Weghorst. He can contest aerial balls with the centre-backs, with Hlynsson and Jayden Banel ready to collect the knockdowns. In the meeting last May, Hlynsson won a duel after a long ball from Lagerbielke and helped create Twente’s goal. Weghorst now contributes both with his finishing and by linking up with teammates. In midfield, Koopmeiners and his partner must deal with the ball coming off Weghorst while also tracking Hlynsson and Banel’s forward runs. With Smit absent, losing those midfield battles could give Twente more chances to shoot from just outside the penalty area.
AZ Alkmaar have ways to respond. They can intercept the first pass towards Weghorst or win the second ball after the aerial duel, then break towards van Bommel and Ibrahim Sadiq. Coach van den Brom said after the defeat to Utrecht that his team had won very few duels. If Twente lose those battles again despite having more possession, they could hand AZ Alkmaar opportunities to attack quickly. If AZ Alkmaar lose the ball while trying to play out, Twente’s second-line players will be able to launch attacks from promising positions. The teams’ positions when possession changes matter more than which side has the ball for longer.
Twente’s left flank also deserves attention. In last season’s cup quarter-final, Sondre Orjasaeter beat his man down that side and crossed for Hlynsson to head in at the far post. Marko Pjaca is expected to start on the left this time. Pjaca and left-back Altindor will face AZ Alkmaar’s Dijkstra and Sadiq. If Sadiq is slow to track back, Dijkstra will have to handle both players’ movement. If Dijkstra pushes forward, Pjaca can target the space behind him. Even if AZ Alkmaar focus their attack on van Bommel on the left, they cannot afford to neglect the opposite flank in defence.
The timing of each team’s strengths could depend on who scores first. If AZ Alkmaar strike first, Twente are likely to have more of the ball and create chances for Hlynsson and Banel. In both of last season’s meetings in Alkmaar, Twente shifted the momentum after AZ Alkmaar’s early goal. Still, Twente managed only one goal despite taking 22 shots against Thun and 24 against Utrecht. Taking control is one thing; finding an equaliser is another. They will need someone to finish from a good position after Weghorst links play.
If Twente score first, AZ Alkmaar’s second-half substitutions will matter. Coach Echteld has brought on wide players and attacking midfielders when the attack has stalled, and Weslley Patati and Buiskop, who both scored on Thursday, could come off the bench this time. Twente’s four starting defenders also played on Thursday, and they have few experienced options to change at centre-back. If AZ Alkmaar increase their wing play in the second half, those defenders will have to keep competing. But with Hoornkamp out, they have no specialist striker to replace Meerdink. More energy from the substitutes does not guarantee a finisher in the penalty area.
The forecasted strong winds could affect the accuracy of the crosses, long balls and set pieces both teams want to use. They could also make it harder for goalkeepers and defenders to deal with high balls, so the conditions do not clearly favour either side. How the wind actually blows during the match could also determine how often teams choose short passes instead of long ones. Even if the expected aerial duels happen often, their number alone will not show which side is attacking more effectively.
3. Final verdict and prediction
The market gives AZ Alkmaar a slight edge, pointing to their second-place standing, unbeaten home league record, Twente’s away goals conceded and the absence of their first-choice goalkeeper. The opponents behind AZ Alkmaar’s home record are a reason to hesitate. They have not faced a possession-heavy side like Twente at home this season. Given Twente’s ability to create chances and the control they showed in the middle stages of last season’s meeting in Alkmaar, we find it hard to back the home side to win just because they score first.
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Twente. We expect AZ Alkmaar to score first through their early press and a duel after a cross, then Twente to turn the game around midway through the match with attacks built on Weghorst’s aerial contests and Hlynsson and Banel’s involvement. Twente’s chance creation and AZ Alkmaar’s midfield absences support that middle-stage swing. But Twente’s defenders, who also played on Thursday, will have to withstand AZ Alkmaar’s attacking substitutions in the second half, with few options to reinforce the centre of defence. We expect AZ Alkmaar to draw level in the final 25 minutes through a set piece and wing play, leaving both teams with two goals.
This prediction depends on Twente turning their chances in the middle stages into goals, then struggling to withstand the pressure late on. If AZ Alkmaar keep disrupting Twente’s first pass from the start and maintain control through the middle stages, the expected sequence of a Twente comeback followed by an AZ Alkmaar response will not materialise.
