Two matches where the visitors look the more complete side on the pitch, even if neither is a lock. In both, the home team's defensive structure is the thing under pressure, and the draw is a real outcome that has to be respected.
Celta Vigo against Betis: Celta are a low-event team, around twelve shots and barely over one expected goal per game, and five of their nine league games ended level. Betis are the opposite, a high-volume side with about seventeen shots and nearly seven on target per game. The key matchup is that Betis attack against a Celta centre-back pair that is missing both Starfelt and Nunez, with the forwards Iglesias and El Abdellaoui also out, so Celta have little way to hurt Betis back. Celta also played in Scotland on Thursday. Betis have their own gaps in Bernal, Firpo and Hernandez, and they leak goals, but the shot and on-target gap is large. I expect Betis to hold the ball and shoot more, with the first goal deciding whether Celta can stay compact. That's why I'm siding with Betis, with the draw returned to me if Celta hold on.
Angers against Lorient: Angers have conceded five goals in each of their last two matches, 2-5 to Marseille and 1-5 at Brest, and allow nearly two expected goals and more than seventeen shots per game. Lorient are compact, concede little, and kept a clean sheet in half of their last ten. Angers do win corners, so a set piece is their clearest way in, but their attack gets few shots on target. The absences on both sides are in midfield and do not change the picture much. The game should be cagey early and open up if Angers fall behind, because their defence is poor in open play. I'm siding with Lorient, again with the draw refunded.
The two reasons are different: one is a volume gap against a weakened back pair, the other is a leaky defence meeting a side that rarely concedes.
