Two matches where both defences leak and both teams have ways to score. Neither side looks able to shut the game down, so the shape is open, with chances at both ends.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: Auxerre have scored in each of their last ten and concede around two a game, with about 1.9 xG against. Four of their defenders are out, confirmed from two sources, so the back line is built from fringe players. Le Mans have scored in nine of ten and concede 2.2 xG a game, though their attack is thinner without Colas and two midfielders. Auxerre should score on quick transitions and Le Mans should find at least one against that patched defence. That's why I'm siding with both teams finding the net.
Real Sociedad vs Levante: Levante concede 2.5 goals and 2.3 xG a game, including three to Sevilla, four to Barcelona and three to Villarreal. Sociedad's games combine for about 3.0 xG, and two of their defenders are missing. Levante counter and can create 1.4 to 2.0 xG on their day. The last two meetings were low scoring, but the current defensive state points the other way. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
