[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Udinese vs AC Milan: Match Preview Kick-off: October 25 at 19:45 UTC
Udinese and AC Milan meet at the Bluenergy Stadium in Udine for Serie A matchday 8, with kick-off at 19:45 UTC on October 25. Udinese are on a five-match losing streak and level on points with the teams in the relegation zone, while AC Milan remain unbeaten in the league. But Milan travel again just three days after playing away at Bournemouth, where they spent a long spell with 10 men, and they will be without six regular starters.
1. Match overview and team form
Udinese are 16th with four points from seven league games, having won once, drawn once and lost five times. They are level with Genoa, Fiorentina and Parma and need to end their losing run. Reports about Kosta Runjaic’s future emerged after the 0-3 defeat to Lecce. Runjaic acknowledged that he was under pressure, while saying the club were happy with his work. The squad had seven days to rest after the Lecce game and prepared for AC Milan with a training camp.
AC Milan are fifth with 15 points from seven league games, having won four and drawn three. They have won all three home matches, but their four away games have brought one win and three draws. In the three away league games with expected-goals data, they created chances at a similar or lower rate than their opponents each time. They have scored no first-half goals in their four league away games, with all six goals coming after the break. Their unbeaten record alone does not mean we should expect them to dominate from the start on this trip.
League after seven games Position and points: Udinese 16th, 4 / AC Milan 5th, 15 Record: Udinese 1 win, 1 draw, 5 losses / AC Milan 4 wins, 3 draws Goals for and against: Udinese 9 and 16 / AC Milan 14 and 7 At the venue conditions for this match: Udinese at home, 1 draw and 3 losses, 2 goals / AC Milan away, 1 win and 3 draws, 6 goals
Udinese’s five straight defeats have unfolded in different ways. They took the lead against Lazio and Inter, and against Cagliari they lost despite recording 26 shots and 2.13 expected goals. By contrast, their expected goals were just 0.70 and 0.55 in the recent games against Torino and Lecce, while their expected goals against were 2.42 and 3.40. The current problem is that a team that had been dropping points has also lost its ability to create chances in its last two games. Against Lecce, they conceded twice from corners in the first half, then pushed forward and repeatedly left themselves open to counterattacks.
Runjaic generally sets Udinese up in a 3-4-2-1. Out of possession, the wing-backs drop back to form something close to a 5-4-1. When they win the ball, they look first to Keinan Davis, who has one goal and three assists this season. Against Inter, Unai Gómez crossed for James Abankwah to head in after nine minutes, then Jürgen Ekkelenkamp scored on 16 minutes after Davis set him up. But when Udinese spent too long trying to play out from their own half and lost the ball, Inter turned the game around. The transition through Davis is a route to goal, but Udinese remain vulnerable while trying to keep possession in their own half.
Absences up front could limit Udinese’s options after the break. With Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Issouf Bayo unavailable, Runjaic has fewer choices when looking to add a striker while chasing the game. Nicolò Zaniolo has recovered from a muscular problem and is in the squad, but he is not expected to start and his minutes will be managed. Oumar Solet’s availability is a question in the back three. If he cannot play, Christian Kabasele is expected to take the central role. James Abankwah could return, which would help in defence and at attacking set pieces.
AC Milan coach Ruben Amorim has used both a back three and a back four, depending on the match and the players available. This time, the bigger question is who will make the runs into the box within either shape. Adrien Rabiot scored after moving forward from midfield to get close to Gonçalo Ramos, while Diego Moreira advanced down the left and played a through ball. Along with those two, Mario Gila Fuentes, Matteo Gabbia, Samuel Chukwueze and Alexis Saelemaekers are out. Fikayo Tomori is expected to cover in defence, though he has played only 145 minutes this season and could line up either at right-back or as the right centre-back, depending on the formation.
AC Milan still have Luka Modrić’s passing and set pieces, Christian Pulisic’s runs in behind and Alphadjo Cissè, who has scored five goals in all competitions this season. Ramos has also returned to team training and is being considered for a starting role up front. Mike Maignan’s red-card suspension from the Bournemouth game applies to the next European fixture, so he is available against Udinese. Still, Milan played for almost 70 minutes with 10 men after Maignan was sent off in the first half at Bournemouth. Several defenders and midfielders who started that match are also candidates to start here. Bologna and the Milan derby follow, making the timing of second-half substitutions important.
Recent meetings offer lessons for both sides. In April, Udinese won 3-0 at San Siro after scoring on the counter when AC Milan lost the ball while attacking. Last September in Udine, the reverse happened: Udinese conceded after trying to play out from their own half and lost 0-3 to Milan. Amorim was not Milan’s coach for the April match, and Zaniolo, who led Udinese’s counterattacks that day, is not expected to start this time. We should focus on which team gives the other chances after losing the ball rather than applying those results directly to this game.
2. Matchup analysis
AC Milan are likely to have more possession, with Udinese dropping into a low defensive block. Runjaic also expects Milan to dominate the ball and said his side would have to do a lot of defensive work. If Udinese sit in a 5-4-1 to protect the space in front of the box, Milan can use Modrić to move the ball forward, but they will need other players to make the runs into the box that Rabiot and Moreira usually provide from midfield and the left. Pulisic and Cissè can threaten with runs in behind or by cutting in from the wings, but Udinese’s deep shape will leave less room for those runs.
Udinese’s response depends on Davis holding up the first pass. If he can receive the ball with his back to goal and link play, Jürgen Ekkelenkamp and Hassane Kamara will have time to get forward. If Milan lose the ball in midfield while attacking, their defenders left behind must immediately deal with Davis and the runners around him. If Udinese’s pass to Davis is cut out, their wing-backs will have to race back into position. The spell against Inter when a long pass failed to find its target and the opposition attack followed shows the risk in this approach for Udinese too.
Udinese’s left side, where Kamara plays, is directly affected by Milan’s absences. With Chukwueze and Saelemaekers unavailable, Milan could use Tomori at right-back or ask Omari Giraud-Hutchinson to play right wing-back, depending on the expected formation. If Kamara wins the ball and advances, that new combination will have to stop him. If Kamara loses possession high up the pitch, Pulisic and Cissè could run in behind Udinese’s defence. Which attack comes off will depend not just on the wide players’ pace, but also on whether Davis can hold the ball and Milan can complete their forward passes safely.
The players available to each coach after the break could change the game. Amorim has made half-time changes to the shape or personnel away from home and found goals in the second half. Against Sassuolo, Modrić came on, Moreira advanced down the left and Rabiot pushed into a higher position to help create the opening goal. This time, the two players responsible for those movements are out. That makes it difficult to assume Milan can find the same solution after the break if they struggle to break down Udinese in the first half. Udinese are also short of options to change their attack if Davis is shut down or they concede first, with Gueye and Bayo unavailable. Zaniolo could come on, but his minutes are expected to be limited.
Set pieces could give both teams chances in a tight game. Udinese conceded twice from corners against Lecce and also allowed Torino to score first from a corner routine. Milan still have Modrić’s delivery and the aerial presence of Strahinja Pavlović, Koni De Winter and Tomori. Rabiot and Gila, who both played a part in Milan’s corner goal against Atalanta, are unavailable. Udinese welcome back Abankwah, who scored a header after a set piece against Inter. Milan have also conceded from set pieces after taking the lead away to Juventus and Sassuolo, so they will need to keep defending those situations if they go ahead.
After the first goal, we should watch how the team falling behind responds. If Udinese concede first, they will have to push their wing-backs and midfielders forward with few attacking substitutes available. If they lose the ball after advancing, as they did against Lecce, Pulisic and Cissè could find space behind the defence. If Milan concede first, they will need to break down a deep block without Rabiot and Moreira, though Modrić’s passing and the finishing ability of Pulisic, Cissè and Ramos will still be there. Either team could add another goal after the opener, so the first goal alone may not decide the final result.
3. Verdict and conclusion
Our predicted score is 1-1, with Udinese at home. In the first half, Milan are likely to have the ball while Udinese defend in a 5-4-1, limiting the chances. After the break, Milan are more likely to go ahead first, either through a mistake as Udinese try to play out from the back or a set piece from Modrić. Udinese could then equalise through a forward run from Zaniolo or a header from Abankwah, but we expect both teams to find a second goal difficult.
Milan have gone into their away league games without scoring in the first half, then found a way to attack after the break, but Rabiot and Moreira, who drove those changes, are missing this time. Udinese can create a route to goal by conceding possession and breaking through Davis. After spending a long spell with 10 men at Bournemouth, Milan’s defence will have to deal with those transitions and set pieces in the second half. Milan have also conceded equalisers away to Juventus and Sassuolo after taking the lead.
The market clearly favours Milan, pointing to their unbeaten league record, Udinese’s five straight defeats and the quality of the players still available. The individual quality of Milan’s starters supports that view, but with Rabiot and Moreira out, their runs into the box and a key second-half tactical option are missing. That makes it difficult for Milan to extend a lead and put the game away. The outlook changes if Udinese concede early. If they give up a goal before the 30th minute through poor corner defending or an error playing out from the back, they will have to push forward to chase the game with few attacking substitutes available, leaving space for Milan to score again.
