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Two Japanese top-flight games where one side has a clear scoring problem and the other has the cleaner structure. In both, the stronger team controls the ball while the weaker one struggles to create real chances.

Kawasaki’s four goals against Cerezo and Kobe’s three against Okayama came from very different games. Kawasaki twice lost a lead even after Cerezo went down a player; Kobe spent a scoreless first half defending before its press and direct play took over. I’m watching the space behind Kawasaki’s midfield when an attack breaks down. If Kobe win that next ball, they can put the home side back under pressure quickly; if Kawasaki keep it, Kobe may have to defend another long spell.

Nagasaki have scored 11 goals in ten league games, and Hiroshima, the league leaders, have conceded only 6 in ten. That is the whole shape of this match: a side that struggles to create against a side that rarely lets anyone through. The more interesting question for me is what Nagasaki do when the first plan doesn't work, because their last few results (a 0-2 at Kashima, then 1-1 at Chiba) suggest they can hold a game for a long time without ever threatening to win it.

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Yamagata's recent scoreless games still contained a steady supply of chances. Sapporo have found direct routes through Omori and moments from Aoki, but their latest attacks have produced fewer clear openings. The key collision is Yamagata's forward recovery and runs behind the wingbacks against Sapporo's direct escape and three-centre-back cover. Set pieces and second balls will matter at both ends.

New York and Philadelphia bring several ways to create, but the battle for extra possessions should shape their opener. Brunson and Towns can stretch a defense with passing and screens, while Philadelphia can answer with drives and foul pressure. San Antonio and Oklahoma City have a different contest over ball security and the paint. The Spurs' extra handlers meet a Thunder defense built around guard pressure and two imposing bigs.

Oklahoma City's pressure defense and San Antonio's ball handling set the terms of this rematch. The Thunder have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to turn a broken possession into another scoring chance. The Spurs can keep several creators on the floor while Victor Wembanyama protects the paint behind them. The key is how often each side reaches the rim without handing the other a quick transition chance.

New York's extra possessions and Philadelphia's varied shot creation should pull this opener in different directions. The Knicks can extend possessions through Towns and Drummond, while the 76ers can create first looks through several starters. In Yamagata, the home side's high recoveries and wide runs meet Sapporo's right-side exits and work at corners. Both games turn on whether repeated entries become clean shots and whether the next defensive possession is secured.

The first substitutions look especially important in New York against Philadelphia, where the starting creators have several ways to reach the paint. New York can build possessions through Brunson and Towns, then bring a different interior presence through Drummond. In San Antonio against Oklahoma City, the central contest is whether several ball handlers can keep an attack moving against perimeter pressure and two-big help.