[2026-27 UEFA Champions League] Como 1907 vs Manchester United preview and analysis Kick-off: October 21, 16:45 UTC
Como 1907 and Manchester United meet at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia at 16:45 UTC on October 21 for their third league phase match of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. Both teams have three points, but their recent form and absences for this match differ. Como 1907 are likely to take control at home, and the outcome may hinge on whether Manchester United can play through the press and attack the space out wide.
1. Match overview and team form
Como 1907 beat RB Leipzig 4-1 and then lost 3-2 to Feyenoord. Manchester United beat Sabah Baku 4-0 before losing 2-0 to Atlético Madrid. In the data centre standings on October 20, the teams are level on three points and a +2 goal difference, with goals scored the only difference between them. This is Como 1907's first home match in a UEFA competition, while Manchester United travel looking to end a six-match winless run in all competitions.
All competitions this season Record: Como 1907, 9 matches, 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses / Manchester United, 10 matches, 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses Goals: Como 1907, 18 scored, 11 conceded / Manchester United, 16 scored, 15 conceded Champions League: Como 1907, 1 win, 1 loss, 6 goals scored, 4 conceded / Manchester United, 1 win, 1 loss, 4 goals scored, 2 conceded
Como 1907 won 3-1 away to Fiorentina last time out. Mattia Liberali, Nico Paz and Anastasios Douvikas scored from different areas of the pitch, showing the variety in their attacking routes. The data centre's expected goals were 1.77 for Como 1907 and 2.25 for Fiorentina, though. With Jean Butez making five saves and Fiorentina also hitting the woodwork, the win alone is not proof of defensive solidity. Against Feyenoord, Como 1907 scored first but conceded an equaliser two minutes later, then gave up the winner when an opposing forward cut inside from the left.
Manchester United's six-match winless run has had different causes. Against Tottenham Hotspur, they led in the second half and had an extra man, but conceded an equaliser from a cross in open play. Against Leeds United, they started with a back three and took the lead through Bryan Mbeumo, then conceded from a corner. Their second-half expected goals were just 0.25. Against Atlético Madrid, they conceded early and never scored. In each of their last four matches with expected-goals data available, Manchester United created fewer chances than their opponents. Three of those four were away matches, but they were also outdone at home by Tottenham, with expected goals of 0.80 to 1.62.
Both managers usually set up in a 4-2-3-1, but they build attacks from different areas. Cesc Fabregas puts Nico Paz in the middle of the attacking midfield line and relies on possession and a high press. Paz has 2 goals and 4 assists in 9 appearances this season, receiving the ball behind the opposition midfield and linking up with the forwards. Since Benjamin Šeško's injury, Michael Carrick has used Matheus Cunha as a false nine or moved Mbeumo into the middle. He also tried a back three against Leeds, but the change did not solve their drop in chances after the break.
The absences directly affect both teams' tactics. Como 1907 will be without Assane Diao, who has scored 4 goals this season. That removes an attacking route used for the opener against Feyenoord, when he ran in behind to meet a long pass. Moise Kean and Jesús Rodriguez are also unavailable, leaving Fabregas with fewer attacking options from the bench. Fabregas has indicated that Douvikas will start up front. Jacobo Naveros and Oliver Kempf Marc are expected to fill in for centre-back Trevoh Chalobah.
Manchester United are without central defenders Ayden Heaven, Lisandro Martínez and Leny Yoro, while left-sided defenders Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu are also out. Matthijs de Ligt, who returned after 11 months, is among the candidates to partner Harry Maguire at centre-back. Harry Amass or Diogo Dalot are expected at left-back. Even if de Ligt starts, 90 minutes may be beyond him. With Kobbie Mainoo also missing in midfield, Carlos Baleba and André Santos are likely to protect the space in front of Nico Paz. These are projected line-ups, so the actual combinations will be confirmed when the teams are announced.
The teams have no previous competitive meetings. We have to judge this one on recent matches and the players available today. Both played league matches on October 18, so they have had the same recovery time. Como 1907 also host Sassuolo three days after this match. Heavy rain was forecast in Lombardy on matchday, though another forecast suggested the rain could clear by evening. Since conditions at kick-off are uncertain, we cannot call the weather an advantage for either side.
2. Matchup analysis
If Como 1907 press high, Manchester United's first pass will be put to the test. With Martínez out, Maguire, de Ligt or another replacement, and goalkeeper Senne Lammens will have to start the build-up. If Como 1907 win the ball in the opposition half, Paz and Douvikas can launch attacks close to goal. Manchester United have conceded expected goals of 1.42 to 1.62 in each of their last four matches, which also points to chances for Como 1907. That record alone cannot tell us how many goals the new defensive pairing will concede.
In midfield, it will matter whether Paz can receive the ball behind Baleba and Santos. If the two midfielders step out to press Como 1907's ball-carriers, Paz may have room to turn. If they sit deeper to track him, Como 1907 will have more time in possession to build attacks down the flanks. Paz headed in an Álex Valle cross against Fiorentina and also assisted Douvikas's goal. With Diao out, the link between Paz and Douvikas, Baturina's runs and crosses from wide areas are likely to play a bigger part in Como 1907's attack.
Como 1907 can struggle if Manchester United pack the space in front of the box. Against Roma, Como 1907 failed to score even though the opposition had been down to 10 men from the 53rd minute. Douvikas's three shots did not produce a shot on target. If Manchester United block Paz's forward passes and deal with crosses through Maguire and de Ligt's aerial strength, Como 1907 could have plenty of the ball without scoring much. Carrick changed shape away to Leeds last time out and stressed before this match that his side need a win, so we do not know whether he will start with a low block.
Manchester United have another route in attack. If Como 1907 lose the ball after their full-backs push forward, Amad Diallo can run in behind Valle while Mbeumo looks for low passes through the middle. Feyenoord scored by cutting inside from Como 1907's left, showing that space can be exploited. Mbeumo has also scored from low passes against Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United. This attack will be hard to start if Como 1907's press stops Manchester United playing forward, but if a pass beats the press and finds the space behind Valle, Jacobo Naveros and Kempf will have to deal with Mbeumo as well.
Como 1907 can manage that risk. Valle could go forward less often, or a defensive midfielder could cover the left side and limit Diallo's space. That would also mean fewer crosses from Como 1907's left. Fabregas's decision will depend on how often his press disrupts Manchester United's first pass. If the press works, Como 1907 can keep attacking even with Valle pushed high. If Manchester United play through it repeatedly, the same forward runs will leave Como 1907 with more to defend.
The bench could matter after half-time. If de Ligt starts and needs his minutes managed, Manchester United may have to change their centre-back pairing during the match. If Como 1907 have not taken the lead by then, Diao, Kean and Rodriguez's absences leave them with fewer attacking substitutes to change the game. If Como 1907 are ahead and Manchester United push forward in pursuit, Paz and Baturina may find space behind the midfield and look for a second goal. Manchester United failed to protect leads against Tottenham and Leeds. With a changed defensive line today, holding a lead could be even more demanding.
Both teams also need to watch set pieces. Manchester United conceded from the second phase of a corner against Leeds. Maguire and de Ligt's aerial ability alone may not be enough if the team fails to organise its marking. Como 1907 also conceded after a scramble following a corner against Fiorentina. Both sides may find chances this way if their pressing and wide attacks are not working as planned.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Como 1907 to have more of the ball and use a high press to test Manchester United's defence. The market gives Como 1907 a slight edge, taking into account their home form, Manchester United's winless run and the absences in defence. But Como 1907's recent win over Fiorentina came despite giving up more chances. We lean slightly towards the home side less because of their results and more because Manchester United's new defensive line will face Como 1907's press from the start, and may need another change at the back in the second half.
We expect Como 1907 to take the lead through Paz's link-up play from the attacking midfield line, then look for another goal if Manchester United push forward to chase the game. Manchester United could also score once, with Diallo running in behind Como 1907's full-backs and Mbeumo receiving a low pass in the middle. Our predicted scores are 3-1 or 2-1 to Como 1907, with 3-1 the more likely. We expect Como 1907's press to trouble the new defence's first pass, Paz to link attacks behind a midfield missing Mainoo, and Manchester United to have to chase the game while reorganising at the back in the second half. This outlook would change if Carrick starts with a compact block in front of the box to stop Paz's forward passes. If Como 1907 cannot break down a packed defence without Diao, one Manchester United counterattack could decide the match.
