[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Levante vs Athletic Bilbao preview and analysis Kick-off: 18:00 UTC on 21 October
The La Liga round-six match between Levante and Athletic Bilbao, postponed because of heavy rain, will be played at the Ciutat de València at 03:00 Korea time on 22 October. Levante are level on points with the relegation places and need a home win, while Athletic Bilbao have drawn three league games in a row and need to turn their solid defending into three points.
1. Match overview and team form
As of 20 October, Levante are 17th with 7 points and Athletic Bilbao are 11th with 9. Athletic Bilbao have played two fewer matches than most teams because of this postponement and the suspension of their game against Rayo Vallecano. The table alone does not tell the full story of either side’s form: Levante need to cut down on goals conceded, while Athletic Bilbao need to score more.
La Liga this season Matches and W-D-L: Levante, 8 matches, 1 win, 4 draws, 3 defeats / Athletic Bilbao, 7 matches, 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats Goals for and against: Levante, 12 and 16 / Athletic Bilbao, 7 and 6 Home and away records: Levante at home, 3 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat, 10 goals for and 9 against / Athletic Bilbao away, 3 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat, 2 goals for and 2 against
Levante’s five-match winless run has featured a mix of scenarios. They came back from 2-0 down to draw 3-3 with Sevilla, and equalised in the 82nd minute against Deportivo La Coruña. Six of their 12 goals this season have come after the 75th minute. Manager Luis Castro has often made several substitutions at once to add attacking numbers and pace. Levante have yet to finish the first half ahead this season, though. Their late response is a clear strength, but it also reflects how often they concede first.
The difference between their attack and defence is sharper at home. Levante scored five against Real Betis, two against Barcelona and three against Sevilla, but conceded nine across those same three matches. They have scored only twice in five away games. Castro has pressed opponents’ build-up high at home and sent his team forward aggressively. Under pressure, though, Levante have also lost the ball while trying to play short passes out from the back, leading to goals. Against Sevilla, Ndukwe’s back-pass led to the opening goal. Against Villarreal, Mandi and Jon Olasagasti had their passes intercepted before Levante conceded.
Under manager Edin Terzic, Athletic Bilbao have relied on a high press and quick transitions to beat Celta Vigo and Atlético Madrid. Against Celta, Álex Berenguer put them ahead with a shot, then Iñaki Williams pulled a defender wide before Robert Navarro added a second from a Ruiz de Galarreta pass. Against Atlético, Iñaki Williams and Navarro created a scoring chance immediately after the opposition lost possession. Athletic have since drawn with Elche, Alavés and Valencia. Against teams that sit deep, they have struggled to create chances inside the box even when enjoying plenty of possession. Their last two matches have both ended 0-0. Their defence has been steady, with 6 goals conceded in 7 league games, but they have scored only 7 in that time.
Availability in attack will also matter. Oihan Sancet and Gorka Guruzeta are out. Sancet started all 6 of Athletic’s league matches this season and made runs into the box from the second line. A front line with Álex Berenguer, Canales and Robert Navarro behind Iñaki Williams was used against Valencia, but Athletic managed only 9 shots, with 2 on target. Nico Williams has returned to team training, but his availability and possible minutes remain uncertain. Navarro also suffered cramp late in the previous match. Levante will be without Sotelo, while Karl Etta Eyong is available for selection. Castro has said he is monitoring several players’ fitness, so there is still some uncertainty over the starting line-up and timing of substitutions.
Athletic Bilbao won both meetings last season, 2-0 away to Levante and 4-2 at home. They scored twice in the first half of both games, with Levante’s response coming after they fell behind. The 2-0 match featured two different managers from the ones in charge today, while Levante played with 10 men for a long spell after a first-half red card in the 4-2 game. Those scores cannot simply be carried over to this match. The route is still there, though: Iñaki Williams ran in behind Levante’s defence, with Navarro joining the attack.
The schedule is demanding for both sides. This is Levante’s third match in nine days. Athletic Bilbao are back in the same region around four days after their away game against Valencia, and their fitness was said to have dropped sharply late in that match. That could matter when Levante’s late attack meets Athletic’s game management. Levante have also had a busy run, though, so the extra rest alone does not guarantee an advantage late on.
2. Match-up analysis
The key contest is between Levante’s first pass and Athletic Bilbao’s high press. If Levante push up and try to play out with short passes as they have at home, Berenguer and Navarro can press the passes between the centre-backs and midfield. Athletic scored against Atlético Madrid after winning the ball, with Iñaki Williams quickly finding Navarro. Given how Levante conceded against Sevilla and Villarreal, there is a clear basis for expecting the visitors to win the ball high and score first.
Levante have also shown how they can escape the press. Against Real Betis, the defence used a long pass to find Iván Romero as he moved up the pitch. They could try the same again, with Romero contesting the ball against Aymeric Laporte and Aitor Paredes before Levante look to build a second phase. If they cannot win the ball back after the long pass, Athletic can launch another attack. Levante will need to choose between short and long passes according to the pressure they face. With defensive passes already leading directly to goals this season, the decision is about more than keeping possession.
If Levante’s press fails, Iñaki Williams becomes a threat at the other end. When Levante send players forward, space opens behind their defence. Iñaki ran into that space in last season’s meetings, and in the February match a Levante defender was sent off while trying to stop his run. Terzic’s side have reduced their use of long passes, but goalkeeper Unai Simón or midfielder Ruiz de Galarreta could still go long to beat Levante’s press. If Castro cannot keep the gap between the forwards and defence under control, Levante’s aggressive approach at home could give the visitors chances to attack.
Athletic Bilbao could miss Sancet when they have long spells on the ball. Against Valencia, with Sancet absent, they had around 63% possession but an expected goals figure of 0.59. Against Alavés, 15 of their 24 shots came from outside the box. Those numbers do not prove they will fail to score today. They do suggest, though, that with fewer players making runs between defenders like Sancet, Athletic could end up relying on crosses from wide areas or shots from distance while Canales links play. If Levante’s busy schedule makes them press less and spend longer defending in a compact shape, the visitors could face a task similar to the one they have had in recent draws.
Levante have set pieces and attacking options off the bench. They scored three times against Real Betis with headers from corners and crosses. Castro made triple substitutions around the 60th minute against Barcelona and Villarreal, and substitute Ratkov was involved in the late equaliser against Deportivo La Coruña. If Athletic take the lead and drop deeper, Levante can look for an equaliser through de la’s delivery, aerial duels and runs from substitutes. There is no specific evidence that Athletic have been especially vulnerable at set pieces this season, so this outlook is based on how Levante have actually scored.
A late push would give Levante chances to score, but it would also leave them open to counter-attacks. In last February’s meeting, Levante scored twice after the 81st minute, but Athletic scored again after Levante committed more players forward. If Nico Williams comes on in the second half, Athletic could take on a tiring full-back and send Iñaki and Nico into the space behind Levante’s defence. If Nico cannot play or gets only a short spell, the visitors will have fewer options for adding a goal after taking the lead. Either way, this contest depends on Levante having enough energy to keep committing players forward late on.
3. Verdict and prediction
Our predicted score is Levante 1-1 Athletic Bilbao. Athletic are more likely to score first by pressing Levante’s short build-up passes or attacking the space behind the defence. Levante should chase the game and force the visitors to sit deeper, and we expect Castro’s substitutions and set-piece chances to help them find a late equaliser.
Levante’s mistakes playing out from the back have led to goals this season, and Athletic have won matches with pressing and quick attacks when opponents push forward. That supports the case for an early away goal. On the other hand, Sancet’s absence leaves Athletic with fewer runs into the box after the first goal, while Levante have repeatedly scored after the 75th minute and made aggressive substitutions. Athletic’s late drop in energy in their previous away match also gives us little reason to expect them to protect a one-goal lead all the way to the end.
The market leans towards an Athletic Bilbao win, pointing to their low number of goals conceded and their record in this fixture. Their defence and ability to press Levante remain relevant, but the absence of Sancet’s runs into the box could affect their ability to turn an opening goal into a win. This prediction depends on Levante having the energy to keep adding attackers late on. If the fitness issues Castro mentioned prevent them from sustaining that pressure, Athletic Bilbao could hold onto an early goal and win.
