New York and Philadelphia bring several ways to create, but the battle for extra possessions should shape their opener. Brunson and Towns can stretch a defense with passing and screens, while Philadelphia can answer with drives and foul pressure. San Antonio and Oklahoma City have a different contest over ball security and the paint. The Spurs' extra handlers meet a Thunder defense built around guard pressure and two imposing bigs.
In New York, Brunson and Towns played substantial minutes together against Toronto, and the Knicks gathered 15 offensive rebounds and took 90 shots. Towns can draw Embiid away from the basket, then Hart and Drummond help turn misses into another chance. Maxey's pace, Brown's drives, James's passing and Embiid's interior play give Philadelphia genuine answers, but its returning stars lost the rebound count heavily against Boston.
Philadelphia's latest report has Bona, Simons and Wade questionable; Bona and Simons missed the preseason, while Wade played limited minutes in the finale. Hart missed New York's last preseason game but is absent from the latest report, and the projected starting groups remain unconfirmed. I expect New York's passing and second shots to matter most through the middle quarters, with Brunson able to create again in a close finish. That's why I'm siding with the New York Knicks to finish ahead.
In San Antonio, Fox, Castle and Harper can take turns starting an attack and use Wembanyama as a finisher, passer or spacer. Oklahoma City can counter through Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, while Holmgren and Hartenstein protect the rim and pursue second shots. San Antonio's Wembanyama-led defense has disrupted this opponent over several meetings, and the Spurs recently tried their planned three-guard group together.
Harris is out after missing all five Spurs preseason games, so the group has already played without him. Holmgren is available but did not play in Oklahoma City's preseason; Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Hartenstein did play its finale. The game should turn on whether San Antonio's handlers secure the ball and finish defensive possessions before the Thunder can run. I give the Spurs' established defensive matchup and added creation the stronger late-game route, so I'm siding with San Antonio to win.
