Two Japanese top-flight games where one side has a clear scoring problem and the other has the cleaner structure. In both, the stronger team controls the ball while the weaker one struggles to create real chances.
Yokohama F. Marinos host Verdy. Verdy sit bottom of the table with 4 goals scored and 18 conceded in 10 games, and they have not scored in their last four. Their last league outing was a 0-4 loss in which they went down to ten men in the 18th minute, and their lead striker was the one sent off, so he is likely suspended. That flag comes from 17 Oct and is not confirmed since. Marinos are 8th, concede under one a game and own the ball at home, though their last two league games were 0-0.
The game should run with Marinos holding possession and Verdy sitting deep, hoping for one set piece or counter. Without their main striker, that route is thin. That is why I'm siding with Verdy not scoring.
V-Varen Nagasaki host Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Hiroshima lead the league: 25 goals for and 6 against in 10 games, with a 24-7 shot count against Kyoto and about 65 percent possession in the games with data. Nagasaki are 15th, score 0.9 a game and have lost 5 of 10; their chances are mostly low quality from outside the box.
Hiroshima's league wins were decided after the break, with goals at 47 and 58 against Verdy and 48, 78 and 82 against Kyoto, so I expect a patient first half and a second-half gap. Some of the run came in cup ties against weaker sides, and Hiroshima score less away than at home, so a narrow win is possible. That's why I'm siding with Hiroshima to win away with a goal of room.
