Both of these matches pit a settled home side against visitors whose spine has been hollowed out in the roles that matter most. PSV arrive in Porto without a single recognised striker, without their holding midfielder and on short rest. Portsmouth reach Molineux missing centre-backs, creators and strikers, in their third game in six days. In both cases, the visitors' own best route is the one their absences hurt most.
Porto under Farioli dominate domestically by pinning sides back and attacking the second ball, with Pepê creating and midfield runners like Froholdt and Veiga arriving in the box. PSV under Bosz want the ball, a high line and an aggressive press. That high line is the main space on the pitch, and Porto's direct forwards are built to run into it.
The absences decide the mesh. Pepi and Lammers are out, so Mijnans is expected to play as a false nine, and PSV's goals have to come from midfield runners. But Schouten, the anchor their counter-press depends on, is out too, as is Wanner, and Til went off injured in their last match. Porto get Bednarek back from his ban and had a full week of rest. PSV had three days after playing almost half a match with ten men, with Feyenoord next.
PSV's best spell should come early, when their press on Porto's build-up still has legs. After the hour, a patched midfield on short rest should fade. Porto tend to score in second halves, and that fits. I'm siding with Porto.
At Molineux, Wolves under Peixoto are a possession side whose goals come from attacking midfielders rather than a number nine: Fer Lopez twice, Bellegarde and Chirewa. They have out-created comparable Championship opponents steadily. Their losses came either from finishing failures, like 19 shots and only three on target against Bolton, or from one genuinely poor away display.
Portsmouth defend compactly away from home, but their centre-back pairing is makeshift with Ogilvie and Arthur out and Shaughnessy doubtful. Swift, Anderson and Brooke-Smith are all missing, so the creativity that would make a Bolton-style counter work isn't there. Waddingham and Murphy are out and Bishop is doubtful, so the finishing isn't either. Their recent wins also flatter them: one came against ten men, another from a penalty.
Expect a cagey first half, then Wolves at their most dangerous after the break. That is where their chance creation has peaked, and where the visitors' heavy legs should show. That's why I'm backing Wolves at home.
