Two Japanese games on this slip, and both should be closer than the names suggest. In Tokyo, unbeaten Nagoya's habit of stealing possessions runs into the best rebounding team in the league, and those two sources of extra chances should roughly cancel out. In Yokohama, Japan Series Game 2 is played without a designated hitter in cool, wet air, which squeezes the scoring and keeps the margin tight. In both games, the edge the favourite is known for runs into a fact the reputation doesn't carry.
Tokyo Sunrockers vs Nagoya Diamond Dolphins. Nagoya are 7-0 because they take the ball away. Their opponents have averaged around 19-20 turnovers a game, Nagoya's own giveaways sit around 10-11, and they get to the line often. But their shooting is ordinary, threes in the low 30s percent, and they have lost the rebound count in most of their full box scores, against Shimane, the Brave Thunders and Ibaraki. Tokyo are built the other way: 45 rebounds a game, the league's best, often a double-digit edge on the boards, with steady free-throw drawing and a moderate turnover rate.
The matchups that matter are Harper Jr. against Takumi Saito at the point of attack, and Tokyo's handlers against Nagoya's pressure. On the other end, Josh Hawkinson and the Tokyo frontcourt take on Scott Eatherton on the glass. If Tokyo cough it up 15-16 times, Nagoya gain about five possessions. Tokyo's rebounding should hand back three to five second chances, and the free throws look level. Nagoya's streak came against mid-table and lower sides; Tokyo are the first elite rebounding team they have met.
No absences are reported for either side. Tokyo are on their fifth game in nine days, but nobody played past 20 minutes in the blowout at Osaka, so the legs should be fine. Expect Tokyo to start fast, Nagoya to make a run off live-ball turnovers in the middle quarters, and a close fourth quarter where Tokyo's rebounding holds up better than Nagoya's jump shooting. That's why I'm siding with Tokyo, taking the points at home.
Yokohama DeNA BayStars vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. SoftBank are the far stronger regular-season side and won Game 1 in eleven innings, but that game was 1-1 after nine. At Yokohama there is no DH, so SoftBank's lineup, built around a DH bat in Pacific League parks, loses a hitter and the depth gap narrows. DeNA got here on pitching, sweeping Hanshin with scores like 2-0, 1-0 and 4-0, and their offence leans on the long ball, which cool, damp air takes away.
The key duel is Liván Moinelo against DeNA's lineup. He was outstanding after coming back from a shoulder problem, but his only postseason start after a layoff ended before the third inning, with three runs and control trouble, and this layoff is even longer. Across from him is Takato Ogata, the former Hawk, who held SoftBank to one run over five innings in June and threw four scoreless innings in the CS. No absences are listed on either side, and the Game 1 batting orders are the reference.
The first three innings show which game we get. If Moinelo is sharp, it stays low and SoftBank more often win by one than by two. If he walks people, DeNA get traffic for Tsutsugo and the middle of the order. Either way the margin stays narrow, so I'm siding with DeNA at home, taking the cushion rather than backing them to win outright.
