Two matches where both back lines leak and the recent results hide how open the games really are. In each one the defensive numbers say more than the table does.
Telstar against Utrecht: Telstar have not won in ten and concede close to two expected goals a game, even though they shoot a lot, mostly from poor positions. Their shots on target are modest, so volume rarely turns into damage. Utrecht have won three of their last four while already missing their midfielders Engwanda and Paredes, so that absence is part of the form, not a new problem. Utrecht played a cup tie midweek and have two new knee knocks, but they have no other game until next week. Telstar will hold the ball at home, and Utrecht only need one goal from open play or a set piece to take the result. That's why I'm siding with Utrecht, with the draw refunded.
Strasbourg against Auxerre: Strasbourg have lost four straight, concede about two and a third goals a game and are without their striker Panichelli. Their own chances are poor, so the goals have to come from the other side scoring and from defensive errors. Auxerre have been missing Okoh, Fofana and Diousse for several games and still score around 1.8 a game, leaking 2.6 per away game lately. Auxerre also win plenty of corners and get shots against a side conceding 17 per game. If Auxerre score first, Strasbourg have to open up, and that is when games like this stretch past a couple of goals. That's why I'm on the goals in this one.
