Two matches where the chance structure leans clearly one way. In the German game, one side arrives at home with a settled attack and a strong home run, while the visitors are short of forwards and defenders and have taken no points from their league games. In the English game, the visitors create far more than they allow, even if their results have not always shown it.
Stuttgart against Gladbach: Stuttgart keep about 58 percent of the ball and have scored 16 and conceded 4 in their last six home games. Gladbach are bottom of the table with no points, have conceded 20 in six league games, and the feed lists eight of their players out, including three forwards and two defenders. Their way back into a game, a counter after a first goal, is much thinner without that attack. Stuttgart played in the Champions League three days earlier, so rotation is the real question, but a hollowed-out Gladbach back line should give them room to build a margin from corners and wide areas. That's why I'm siding with Stuttgart to win by two clear goals.
Bolton against Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough average 18 shots to Bolton's 11 and an xG of 2.1 to 1.1 over their recent games, and they still produced 2.7 xG against Cardiff without their three absentees. Bolton concede around 1.7 xG a game, and their recent wins and draws have run ahead of their chances; they have won just one of their last four at home. Middlesbrough's draws, including two 2-2 results, show finishing is the question, but the gap in chances is the biggest difference in this match. That's why I'm siding with Middlesbrough to win in normal time.
