[2026-27 German Bundesliga] Paderborn 07 vs Hamburg: Match Preview Kick-off: October 24, 13:30 UTC
Paderborn 07 host Hamburg at the Home Deluxe Arena on October 24 at 13:30 UTC in the seventh round of the Bundesliga. Paderborn 07 sit 16th and need to climb out of the relegation playoff places, while ninth-placed Hamburg are looking to make it three wins in a row. Both teams have recently created chances when their opponents had the ball. The key this time will be who steps forward first and who wins the second ball after a long pass.
1. Match overview and team form
Paderborn 07 have 5 points from 6 matches, with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses. Hamburg lost their first three matches, then beat Köln, Hoffenheim and Stuttgart in succession to reach 9 points from 3 wins and 3 losses. A Paderborn 07 win would cut the gap between the teams to 1 point. The standings and recent results alone do not tell us how the teams are playing now. Of Hamburg’s 15 goals conceded this season, 12 came in their first three matches. Paderborn 07’s recent points have included a match in which their goalkeeper made saves despite the team allowing plenty of chances.
Bundesliga this season Position and points: Paderborn 07, 16th, 5 points / Hamburg, 9th, 9 points Record: Paderborn 07, 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses / Hamburg, 3 wins, 3 losses Goals scored and conceded: Paderborn 07, 5 and 9 / Hamburg, 6 and 15
Paderborn 07 beat Hoffenheim 3-1 but lost 2-0 to Stuttgart. Away to Bremen, they went 2-0 up before drawing 2-2. In the two matches in which they scored, they made the most of turnovers, direct attacks from goal kicks and contests in the box after long throw-ins. By contrast, in the first half against Freiburg, when they had to build with short passes, they struggled to connect with their forwards. They pressed high and created shooting chances in the second half against Stuttgart, so we cannot treat all four goalless matches as the same attacking problem.
Hamburg’s turnaround has been more pronounced. Despite losing their first three matches, coach Merlin Polzin stuck with a 3-4-2-1 formation while changing defensive positioning and personnel. The team began sitting deeper against Köln and have won all three of their most recent matches, scoring 6 and conceding 3. According to the Bundesliga’s official analysis, they have created more chances and allowed fewer good ones than in the first three rounds, while covering more than 2 km extra per match. There is context to those results: Hoffenheim played with 10 men from the 65th minute in Hamburg’s away win, and the winner against Stuttgart was a long-range effort from Miro Muheim in the 88th minute, with a 3% chance of going in. We should consider both the improved defensive approach and the unusual goals that helped produce the wins.
Data centre figures for the teams’ last three league matches also show a difference. Paderborn 07 had 3.59 expected goals and 6.76 expected goals against, with an actual goal difference of 5-5. In all three matches, their expected goals were lower than their opponents’, while goalkeeper Nahuel Noll’s saves helped them concede fewer goals than expected. Over the same stretch, Hamburg had 4.15 expected goals and 4.03 expected goals against, with an actual goal difference of 6-3. Hamburg also got better results than their chance volume suggested, thanks in part to Muheim’s long-range strike and goals from set pieces. These figures cover only the last three matches. The sample is too small for either team’s actual goal difference to be a reliable guide to their scoring or defending in the next game.
Paderborn 07 coach Ralf Kettemann has largely kept the same back three and starting lineup. Striker Steffen Tigges started against Bremen and contributed to both goals. The coach said he would start against Hamburg too if the player was in good condition. Starting Tigges would strengthen Paderborn 07 in the aerial duels, but would leave one fewer option to change the attack from the bench. Oliver Batista Meier is out injured, and Sebastian Klaas is also unavailable for this match. Defender Felix Götze has returned to training and is expected to be available.
Hamburg will be without central midfielder Nicolai Remberg, who has a cruciate ligament injury. Polzin has recently moved Muheim from left wing-back into midfield, where he has partnered Bilal Nadir. At the back, the fitness of Nicolas Capaldo matters. Capaldo, who has played every minute this season, missed training, and local reports see a real chance he will be absent. If he cannot play, one option is to move Warmed Omari to the right and bring Jordan Torunarigha in on the left. Torunarigha also felt discomfort in training. In attack, Patson Daka and Bakery Jatta have returned to training, giving Polzin more options off the bench. Their minutes have not yet been decided.
Paderborn 07 lead the data centre’s head-to-head record with 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 7 meetings. All seven were in the second division, though, and the most recent, a 2-0 win in March 2025, came under a different Paderborn 07 coach and with a different frontline. Hamburg had more of the ball then, but now they concede possession and defend deep. The old results are less useful than the way Paderborn 07 scored, by capitalising on mistakes at the back and attacking down the flanks.
Both teams played on October 17, so they have the same seven-day rest period before this match. Hamburg then have three days before the second round of the DFB-Pokal, while Paderborn 07 have four. Polzin said he would be cautious in deciding when to use returning players. Open-Meteo’s forecast for October 24 puts average wind speeds at around 29 km/h near kick-off, easing as the second half goes on. Strong winds early on could affect the accuracy of the long passes and set pieces both teams use.
2. Matchup analysis
Paderborn 07’s attack starts with a long delivery and a duel for the striker. One of Noll’s goal kicks can be held up by one of the two forwards and laid off to the flank, or the team can attack the ball dropping into the box after a long throw from Tjark Lasse Scheller. Against Hoffenheim, they scored twice from attacks that began with goal kicks. Against Bremen, Tigges scored after a long throw. If Hamburg defend deep as they have in their last three matches, Paderborn 07 can send the ball straight to the space in front of the back line. For the move to continue, Tigges needs to win the first duel against Sebastian Bornauw and a teammate must collect the second ball.
If Hamburg keep winning those duels, Paderborn 07 will need another way forward. In the first half against Freiburg, they struggled to move the ball from midfield to the forwards. That is where Hamburg’s deep defensive block could stifle Paderborn 07. On the other hand, if Capaldo is absent and the defenders have to switch positions, Paderborn 07’s wide players and front two would face a different defensive combination from the one Hamburg have used during their three-match winning run. Capaldo has also scored with a header from a corner, so his absence would affect Hamburg’s set-piece attack as well. Until his availability is confirmed, we should not treat that difference as a given.
What happens after the first ball matters too. If Paderborn 07’s Laurin Ulrich and Gabriel Vidović collect the ball Tigges flicks on, the attack can continue. If Nadir and Muheim get there first, Hamburg have a chance to turn defence into attack. Hamburg have also scored from second-ball situations. Against Hoffenheim, Poulsen scored after a free kick came back off the post. After the opposition cleared a corner, Muheim picked up the ball just outside the box and scored with a shot. Against Freiburg, Paderborn 07 blocked the first shot but failed to clear the ball from the box and conceded. The midfielders’ reaction to the next ball will matter as much as the defenders’ first challenge.
Hamburg could also exploit the space behind Paderborn 07 when they push forward. Away to Dortmund, Paderborn 07 moved their defensive line up and were caught out by one forward pass. In Hamburg’s win over Köln, Yussuf Poulsen finished after receiving a wide pass just after the opposition had pushed forward. The picture changes if Paderborn 07 hand Hamburg possession and avoid pushing too far forward. During their three-match winning run, Hamburg mostly faced teams that kept the ball for long spells. Away to Hoffenheim, they created few chances before the home side’s red card. If Hamburg have to spend longer trying to break down Paderborn 07 with the ball, it will be harder to reproduce the counterattacks that have served them during this run.
The difference in how the teams use their players could grow as the match goes on. Paderborn 07 have scored 4 of their 5 league goals this season in the first half, and conceded 6 of their 9 after the break. Against Bremen, they led 2-0 at half-time before allowing the hosts to level after long-ball duels and a foul in the box. Not all of their second-half goals conceded have come from the same cause. Still, with Tigges likely to start and Batista Meier unavailable, Paderborn 07 have fewer options to change their attack later in the match.
A substitute has been involved in a goal in each of Hamburg’s last three wins. Poulsen scored after coming on at half-time against Köln, and substitute Terem Moffi equalised against Hoffenheim. Albert Grønbæk and Zakaria El Ouahdi, both introduced in the second half, also played a part in the winner against Stuttgart. With Daka and Jatta back in training and available, Polzin has room to change his forwards after the break. That does not mean we should expect late goals as a regular pattern. Hamburg’s last three league goals came after the 83rd minute, but two were Muheim long-range efforts and the other came after the opposition had gone down to 10 men.
The opening goal will determine which side has to take on an unfamiliar role. If Paderborn 07 score first, Hamburg will have to push forward with the ball. They have yet to show how they respond after conceding first away from home while using their current deep defensive setup. If Paderborn 07 keep pressing high after taking the lead, they can look to force mistakes in Hamburg’s build-up. But if they spend long spells defending in their own half, as they did against Bremen, they will have to keep dealing with Hamburg’s aerial threat and set pieces. If Hamburg score first, Paderborn 07 can send more long balls forward and push their defensive line higher. They created chances that way in the second half against Stuttgart, but also left themselves open to further goals.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
The clearest scenario is Paderborn 07 scoring first in the first half from a long ball or set piece, with Hamburg catching up after the break. If Tigges and Marino start together, Paderborn 07 have a route to challenge Hamburg’s defenders in the air. If Capaldo is missing, Hamburg would have to contest those duels with a defensive combination different from the one they have used recently. Paderborn 07, though, failed to protect a lead against Bremen and will have fewer attacking changes available in the second half. Hamburg have reduced the goals they concede with their revised defensive approach and can change their attack with substitutes. Taken together, those factors make it hard to see a Paderborn 07 opener translating into a win.
The market gives Paderborn 07 a narrow edge, taking into account their home advantage, Hamburg’s goals conceded this season and the head-to-head record. Most of Hamburg’s goals conceded came during their first three matches, and the previous meetings were all in the second division, with different squads and a different style of play from today’s. Our view differs from the market because Paderborn 07 could struggle to protect a lead, given the gap in second-half options and the risk of conceding. Both teams have recently created chances against opponents who kept the ball for long spells, so we also have little reason to expect them to create as many chances as their past goals-against totals might suggest.
Our predicted score is Paderborn 07 1-1 Hamburg or 0-1. If Paderborn 07 get ahead first against a back line without Capaldo, through a Tigges aerial duel or a long throw, we expect Hamburg to use substitutes and set pieces to draw level at 1-1. If Capaldo plays, Hamburg keep their back three intact and Paderborn 07’s first-half attack is contained, the outlook shifts toward 0-1, with Hamburg scoring after Paderborn 07 push forward in the second half. Paderborn 07 could change that outlook by taking the lead, continuing to press high and putting Hamburg’s build-up under pressure for a second goal.
