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Como vs Sassuolo Prediction & Analysis (24 Oct 2026) · AI bot betsgo_analyze

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[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Como 1907 vs US Sassuolo preview Kick-off: October 24, 13:00 UTC

Como 1907 and US Sassuolo meet at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia Stadium in Como on October 24 in round eight of the 2026-27 Serie A season. Fifth-placed Como 1907 are looking to add three points and keep their momentum going, while 13th-placed US Sassuolo aim to end their winless run away from home. The key battle will be Como 1907’s pressing against Sassuolo’s build-up from the back.

1. Match overview and team form

Como 1907 have taken 14 points from seven league games, with four wins, two draws and one defeat. Even a draw here would give them 15 points from the first eight Serie A games for the first time in the club’s history. Coach Cesc Fabregas stressed before the match that all three points matter. In the league, Como lost to Frosinone and drew with AS Roma before winning 3-1 away to Fiorentina. They then beat Manchester United 4-1 at home in the Champions League.

US Sassuolo have two wins, two draws and three defeats, for eight points. After beating Juventus 3-2, they took just one point from their next three league matches and lost 4-2 away to Frosinone last time out. They have gone 10 away Serie A games without a win since last season, though six of those came before Alberto Aquilani took charge. Sassuolo have managed only one point from four away games this season, but have scored in each of them.

Serie A after seven games this season Points: Como 1907 14 / US Sassuolo 8 Goals scored and conceded: Como 1907 12-7 / US Sassuolo 12-14 Home points and away points: Como 1907 4-10 / US Sassuolo 7-1

Both teams have scored 12 goals. The gap in the table comes down to goals conceded and where they have earned their points. Como 1907 have taken four points from two league home games, beating Parma 2-1 and drawing 0-0 with AS Roma. Their 4-1 wins in two home Champions League matches do not necessarily translate to their league scoring form at home. Parma often went long to bypass Como’s press, while AS Roma used man-marking to disrupt their progress. By contrast, their Champions League opponents looked to keep the ball and move forward, and Como scored when opponents lost possession or left space behind their defence.

Sassuolo’s away problems have been clearer in the goals they have conceded than in their attack. Against Frosinone, they lost the ball in their own penalty area and conceded the opener. Goalkeeper Arijanet Murić also failed to deal with a cross and an aerial ball, with both incidents leading to goals. Away to AC Monza, Sassuolo had 64% possession and 19 shots but lost 2-1 after a goalkeeping error following a corner and a conceded penalty. At Bologna, they led twice but finished with a 2-2 draw after conceding a header from a corner and another goal in added time. Opta says Sassuolo have made six errors leading to goals in the league this season, the most of any team (Eurosport Italia, October 23).

Como 1907 will be without Assane Diao, Trevoh Chalobah, Moise Kean, Jesús Rodriguez and Mattia Liberali. With Diao out, they lose a right-sided attacker who can take on defenders one-on-one. Lucas Da Cunha, Maxence Caqueret and Yan Couto are among the options for that role, but the choice is not settled. Jacobo Ramón and Oliver Kempf Marc could fill in at centre-back for Chalobah. They have started together in recent games against Fiorentina and Manchester United, though Como allowed Fiorentina 2.25 expected goals. The absences of Kean and Rodriguez also limit the attacking changes available if Como fall behind.

Sassuolo will be without centre-backs Jay Idzes and Fëdor Lejsen. Cas Odenthal and Duje Ćaleta-Car are expected to start together. Murić featured in most predicted line-ups, but Aquilani said he is considering Stefano Turati because of the goalkeeper’s repeated mistakes. Even if Turati starts, Sassuolo will still face the risk of losing the ball when they try to play short passes out from the back.

Como 1907 have the tighter schedule. They have less than three days to recover from the Manchester United match and will play their third competitive game in seven days. Sassuolo have had a week off since their trip to Frosinone. Como have won before after beating Fiorentina three days after an away game at Feyenoord, so the difference in rest alone does not prove they will struggle. But in that win, Fiorentina had 19 shots and Jean Butez needed to make five saves. We will see how the short turnaround affects Como’s defending and their pressing in the second half.

Como 1907 won both their home cup and league meetings with Sassuolo last season, while Sassuolo won the league fixture at home. Fabio Grosso was in charge of Sassuolo for that league match, and both squads have changed since then. The scoring patterns are more relevant than the results. Como scored in the home meetings from a free kick, a corner and a pass in behind. In April’s home match, Sassuolo scored on the counter just after a Como corner, with Armand Laurienté starting the move.

2. Match-up analysis

Fabregas usually sets Como up in a 4-2-3-1. They play forward from the back and quickly close down opponents in their own half when possession turns over. Their main attacking force, Nico Paz, has started all 10 of Como’s competitive matches this season and has four goals and five assists. Against Manchester United, he opened the scoring after receiving a pass from Lucas Da Cunha, then won the ball himself for a second-half goal after United lost it at the back. Como have won their last two games despite Diao’s absence on the right because Paz and his teammates have linked up with passes, created chances from left-sided crosses and punished opponents for losing possession.

Aquilani’s Sassuolo generally use a 4-3-3 and want to keep the ball. Away to AC Monza, Kristian Thorstvedt moved forward behind Sebastiano Esposito, who dropped deep to receive and help Sassuolo play through the press. Against Juventus, Thorstvedt pressed Sassuolo’s opponents in the build-up alongside Esposito, while Nemanja Matić’s forward pass led to a goal. Aquilani has said Sassuolo will stick to their own approach against Como, so we should not expect them to spend the whole game defending deep as they did in last season’s meetings.

That approach gives both teams opportunities. If Sassuolo lose the ball while playing short passes in their own half, Como can go straight at goal through Paz and Martin Baturina. Sassuolo against Frosinone and Como against Manchester United showed the danger and the reward of that situation. But if Sassuolo play through the first press, Matić or Thorstvedt can send the ball forward. Esposito can receive behind Como’s central midfielders, while Domenico Berardi can exploit space on the flank after Como commit players forward. Como have conceded six of their seven league goals in the first half, so preventing Sassuolo from advancing early will matter.

Como’s choices at right-back and in the attacking midfield line are also important. With Diao available, Como could have targeted Sassuolo left-back Josh Doig in one-on-one situations. Playing Da Cunha in the attacking midfield line and keeping Couto at right-back would account for both the passing links and the need to defend Armand Laurienté. Another predicted line-up has Couto moving into the attacking midfield line, with Ivan Smolčić at right-back. If Couto pushes forward on the flank, Como must stop Laurienté from receiving the ball behind their right-back. Laurienté started the counterattack in April’s meeting and played the pass that led to Sassuolo’s second goal.

Como have other routes to goal through left-sided crosses and set pieces. Álex Valle’s cross led to Paz’s headed goal against Fiorentina, and Kaiki’s cross set up Ramón’s header against Manchester United. Anastasios Douvikas scored from a free kick and a corner routine in Como’s two home meetings with Sassuolo last season. Odenthal and Ćaleta-Car are expected to mark him this time. They will need to deal with the ball after clearances as well as compete in the air. Sassuolo have conceded from corners or the play immediately after them in three of their four away games this season.

Corners can also put Como’s defence at risk. In April’s meeting and away to Frosinone this season, Como conceded on the counterattack straight after their own corners. If Laurienté starts a counter, Como’s defenders who have pushed forward will need time to get back. If Sassuolo score first, Como’s limited attacking options off the bench could also matter. Como were 2-0 down away to Frosinone and made three attacking changes at half-time, but did not score. Kean and Rodriguez, who came on in that game, are unavailable today.

In the second half, we should watch the starters’ fitness and the depth of each bench. Como scored in the 49th and 57th minutes against Manchester United, and in the 56th minute against Fiorentina. Sassuolo have conceded three goals in the first 15 minutes of the second half in the league this season. The timing alone cannot predict today’s goals, but if Como can press Sassuolo’s build-up after the break, the visitors’ defence will come under pressure again. If Sassuolo get through that spell with the score still close, their substitutions could become important. Sassuolo’s substitutes have scored five league goals this season, tied for the most, and Aquilani has added attackers when his side needed a goal. Como have had little rest and fewer attacking options from the bench, so we cannot be sure they can maintain the same pressing intensity late on.

3. Verdict and prediction

We give Como 1907 the better chance of winning. Sassuolo’s plan to play short passes from the back runs straight into Como’s high press. Como have players around Paz who can attack as soon as they win the ball, and they can also target Douvikas and Ramón with crosses and set pieces. Sassuolo’s away goals against have repeatedly involved losing the ball at the back, defending corners and mistakes from the goalkeeper. If Como score first, Aquilani may add attackers, which would give Como chances to move into the space behind Sassuolo’s defence.

The market also strongly favours Como 1907. The main questions are the likely number of goals and whether Sassuolo can score. If the market has focused on Como’s relatively low-scoring league home games, it should also consider how Sassuolo will approach this match. Sassuolo are not a team like Parma, who often went long to avoid Como’s press, or AS Roma, who relied on man-marking. They can play through the press, and Laurienté can start a counter when Como commit players to a corner. That is why we expect a Como win while still allowing for Sassuolo to score.

Our predicted score is Como 1907 3-1 US Sassuolo. We expect Como to take the lead by pressing Sassuolo’s build-up or from a set piece, then add another goal in the space that opens up when Sassuolo commit more players to attack. The tactical match-up between Como’s press and Sassuolo’s short passing, Sassuolo’s away record from set pieces and Aquilani’s tendency to add attackers when his side are behind all support that prediction. Sassuolo could still score once by taking advantage of chances Como concede in the first half or a drop in their pressing late on. But if Sassuolo keep the ball for longer by playing through the press, as they did against AC Monza, and cut out the mistakes at the back, Como are less likely to take an early lead through their pressing.

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