[2026-27 German Bundesliga] RB Leipzig vs Elversberg: Match Preview Kick-off: October 24, 13:30 UTC
RB Leipzig and Elversberg meet at the Red Bull Arena on October 24 at 13:30 UTC in the seventh round of the German Bundesliga. Newly promoted Elversberg sit one point above RB Leipzig with 10 points, but the sides have taken different paths to their totals. Leipzig’s home attack faces Elversberg’s early pressing.
1. Match overview and team form
RB Leipzig have won all three of their league home games, scoring 14 goals without conceding. They beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0, Hamburg 5-0 and Frankfurt 6-0. Their three league away games have all ended in defeat, with a 2-11 goal difference. Elversberg have three wins, one draw and two losses from six league matches, and every game has been decided by one goal or fewer. Their away record is one win, one draw and one loss, but all four of their away goals came against Mönchengladbach. They failed to score against Schalke 04 and Union Berlin.
After six league matches Position and points: RB Leipzig 7th, 9 points / Elversberg 6th, 10 points W-D-L: RB Leipzig 3-0-3 / Elversberg 3-1-2 Goals: RB Leipzig 16-11 / Elversberg 12-11 Home and away: RB Leipzig at home 3 wins, 14-0 / Elversberg away 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 4-4
Leipzig’s home clean sheets alone do not show that they have shut down opposing attacks. Data Center records show Frankfurt posted 1.46 expected goals at the Red Bull Arena, while PSV managed 1.40. In both matches, saves from Vandevoordt kept them from scoring. Leipzig’s home strength has come from creating chances more than from their defensive numbers. They recorded 4.03 expected goals against Frankfurt and 2.10 against PSV. Nusa and Raum build attacks down the left, with their central teammates turning balls into the penalty area into shots.
Elversberg’s record in close games also masks the risk of conceding. Wettbasis reported on October 23 that they had 13.1 expected goals against across six league matches, compared with 11 actual goals conceded. Saarbrücker Zeitung reported that their 135 shots and 48 corners conceded over the same period were both league highs. Against Bayern Munich, goal-line defending and saves from Kristof kept the defeat to a one-goal margin, but Elversberg allowed 28 shots. If Leipzig keep attacking down the flanks, Elversberg may again have to block a high volume of shots in their own penalty area.
Neither team’s latest result tells the full story of its form. Leipzig lost 6-1 to Bayern Munich and 4-1 to Real Madrid, both away from home. They still created a chance to score first in the first half against Real. Elversberg beat Augsburg 4-3 to end a three-match winless run in the league. Their attack was dangerous as they scored three times by the 28th minute, but they conceded three after going 3-0 up. They also let in two goals after leading Leverkusen 3-0. Even if Elversberg take an early lead, their ability to withstand Leipzig’s response will matter.
The schedule is a concern for Leipzig. They have only a little over two days to recover after their away trip to Real Madrid, while Elversberg have had seven days off since facing Augsburg. Coach Demichelis said he would make changes in several positions. Gomis could start up front, while Nkunku, who has scored four league goals, is a doubt with an adductor problem. If Nkunku is unavailable, another player will need to take on the second-ball shooting role he has filled after goalkeepers make saves. Leipzig beat Hamburg 5-0 at home just two days after an away trip to Como earlier in the season. There is little evidence to say their short recovery time alone will blunt their home attack.
Elversberg have fitness concerns among the players who help link their attacks against strong teams. Darvich, who has recently played as a No. 10, has not returned to training after an injury and is likely to miss out. Campbell is also a doubt, while Onyeka has resumed training but his minutes are uncertain. Darvich linked play from the second line after long balls, while Campbell ran in behind the defence. Krattenmacher could start in Darvich’s place and maintain the attacking threat, but then Elversberg would lose the option of bringing on a player who has scored three league goals as a substitute.
This will be the teams’ first meeting in the Bundesliga. They shared one win apiece in two past third-tier encounters, but both the coaches and squads have changed, so those games offer little guidance for this match. Light rain and gusty winds are forecast around kick-off. On a wet pitch, how the defenders take their first touch and who wins the loose ball after a long pass could shape the early chances.
2. Matchup analysis
The opening minutes will pit Leipzig’s build-up from the back against Elversberg’s high press. Demichelis has also warned that Elversberg press aggressively in the first 15 to 20 minutes. Leipzig lost the ball in their own half in the fourth minute away to Bremen and conceded, while a mistake playing out from the back against Leverkusen also led to an opposition shot. Elversberg’s Mokwa won the ball near the penalty area early against Leverkusen and set up the move for the opening goal. Leipzig’s centre-backs and defensive midfielders could give Elversberg a chance when they come under pressure.
If Leipzig play through the press, they can attack the space left behind Elversberg’s advanced forwards. Nusa takes on defenders on the left, with Raum joining the attack from behind him. Elversberg right-back Gyamerah has recently been substituted or left out of the starting lineup because of his fitness. If Zirch starts in his place, this would be his first league start of the season. Repeated advances by Nusa down that side could force Elversberg to give their wide midfielder more defensive support. That would leave right winger Petkov with more ground to cover before he can break forward after winning the ball.
When Elversberg use long passes to escape the press, the duels around Mokwa will matter. Their equaliser against Bayern came after Kristof’s long pass, with Darvich laying off the loose ball to Krattenmacher. If Darvich is out, Onyeka or Schmahl could take on that role. If Leipzig’s Banzuzi and El Aynaoui win the loose balls, Elversberg may struggle to sustain their attacks. If Elversberg’s second line gets there first, Mokwa can run in behind the centre-backs, while Günther and Petkov can target the space behind the advancing Baku and Raum. That would mirror the kinds of attacks Leipzig have allowed away from home.
Elversberg have shown they can make this approach work, though there are limits to what they can repeat today. They scored against Leverkusen after winning the ball high up the pitch despite having just 34% possession, and equalised against Bayern with a long pass despite having 28%. Both matches were at home, and Darvich and Campbell, who were involved in the goals, are doubts for this game. By contrast, they failed to score away to Schalke 04 and Union Berlin, where the opposition held their shape and made them play around the defence. Leipzig’s high attacking line makes this game more like Elversberg’s matches against Leverkusen and Bayern in terms of style, but whether they can recreate the same link-up play and runs depends on the starting lineup.
Both sides have set-piece threats. Elversberg have scored from a Kaidel corner finished by a Röhl header and from a direct free kick by Kaidel. Leipzig conceded an unmarked header from a corner against Bremen. Elversberg, meanwhile, failed to deal with clearances after corners against Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin, leading to goals. Leipzig’s winner against PSV came from a second shot after a corner, making those situations another attacking opportunity for them. If Nkunku plays, Leipzig can look for a follow-up shot after a save, while his absence would put more emphasis on another player’s runs into the penalty area.
The way both teams manage the game could change after the first goal. Leipzig have won all four of their recent competitive matches in which they led at half-time, and scored again in the second half in each one. Elversberg let opponents back into the game after going 3-0 up against both Leverkusen and Augsburg. If Leipzig score first, Elversberg may have to commit more players forward, creating chances for Nusa and Gomis to run in behind. The response would be less predictable if Elversberg score first. Leipzig have not fallen behind at home this season, and in an away game they pushed more players forward after conceding first and then let in another goal.
In the second half, Leipzig’s short recovery time and Elversberg’s bench options will both matter. If Leipzig take an early lead, Demichelis may replace starters with the upcoming cup match in mind. Still, Leipzig scored twice more against Frankfurt after beginning their substitutions in the 58th minute. Elversberg’s pressing has previously faded after around 70 minutes against Leverkusen, and if Krattenmacher starts, they will have fewer options to add attacking threat later on. Whoever scores first, the changes after 60 minutes could affect the margin.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect RB Leipzig to score more and win. Our predicted score is 3-1 or 4-1 to Leipzig. Elversberg could score once through their early press or a Kaidel set piece. We expect Leipzig to get ahead after playing through the press, with Nusa’s attacks down the left and second chances after corners. If Elversberg commit more players forward, Gomis and Leipzig’s attacking substitutes can run in behind.
The key to this prediction is Leipzig’s sustained chance creation at home, more than their 14-0 home record. Nusa still has a route to attack Elversberg’s right side, and Elversberg have conceded more shots and corners than any other team in the league. Their press could expose Leipzig’s play from the back, but with Darvich and Campbell uncertain to play, Elversberg may have fewer players available to turn a turnover into a goal. Even if Elversberg go ahead, their recent defensive problems after building big leads remain a concern.
The market has factored in Leipzig’s home scoring record and the high number of shots Elversberg concede, while recently rating a big Leipzig win as less likely. The short recovery time and Nkunku’s fitness could help explain that shift, though we cannot say how much each piece of news has affected the odds. We differ from the market in our view that Elversberg could lose both attacking roles and options off the bench. If they push forward while trailing, Leipzig could find space to extend the margin. The predicted Leipzig win and scoreline could change if Campbell starts, keeps their link-up play and runs in behind intact, and Elversberg add to an early goal.
